Joe Biden may be the Democratic presidential front-runner, but in the past 72 hours, he hasn’t been acting like it. During this week alone, Biden abandoned his decades of support for the Hyde Amendment, which bars federal funds abortion, then flipped back to supporting it, and then switched yet again to opposing it.
As a purely strategic matter, Biden’s flip-flop — and flip again — spells danger for his campaign. The best case for Biden is his electability and ability to beat President Trump in a general election. Americans liked Barack Obama on a personal level, and Biden has benefited both from that goodwill and his distance from the Democratic Party’s sharp, left-wing pivot on policy.
Letting himself be bullied by NARAL and Planned Parenthood into demanding subsidies for abortion undercuts the case that he can maintain his moderate credentials, thus undercutting the entire case for his candidacy.
Trump should be easy to beat on paper. Despite presiding over an excellent economy and avoiding major international skirmishes, Trump’s approval ratings have seemingly hit a ceiling, and polling indicates that the majority of the country is resolute in their refusal to vote for his re-election. But perhaps the pivotal center of the country that stayed home when Hillary topped the Democratic ticket will do the same if Democrats elect a candidate radically to the Left of the electorate.
Just 13% of the country supports legalizing third-trimester abortion, but most of the Democratic candidates do. Fewer than four in ten Americans support “Medicare For all,” endorsed by every top candidate except for Biden and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, when reminded that it eliminates private health insurance and increases taxes. And as much as 2020 candidates and their media acolytes may blast the Hyde Amendment, nearly six in ten Americans back it. Biden’s pitch is simple: You liked Obama, Obama likes me, I can beat Trump, and I’m not crazy.
But if Biden follows the Bernie route of the party, he’s just an old, gaffe-prone white guy with the same policies that more intersectional candidates have. As a general rule, Democrats don’t want to vote for a septuagenarian. Nearly half of likely Democratic voters would ideally want to vote for a presidential candidate in his or her 50s, and just 3% would choose one in his or her 70s. But Biden’s gotten a pass because of his perceived moderation. That exception will dissipate if Biden discredits the case that he is uniquely situated to beat Trump.
And most importantly, Biden’s Hyde reversal indicates that on some level, he’s letting the tail wag the dog. Front-runners have to act like front-runners. Biden’s flip-flop makes it clear that he’s not operating from a position of strength. If primary voters see that he’ll be bullied and cajoled by those trailing him into taking positions that are both unpopular and unlikely to help him in a general, why vote for him in the first place?
