If you are a conservative who noticed the mismatch between President Joe Biden’s apocalyptic rhetoric on voting rights (“We’re facing the most significant test of our democracy since the Civil War”) and his subsequent lack of action (refusing to pressure Sens. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema to end the filibuster), you are not alone.
Progressives noticed, too.
“As you noted in your speech, our democracy is in peril,” a group of civil rights leaders wrote in a letter to Biden this week. “We certainly cannot allow an arcane Senate procedural rule to derail efforts that a majority of Americans support.”
The New York Times adds:
In private calls with voting rights groups and civil rights leaders, White House officials and close allies of the president have expressed confidence that it is possible to “out-organize voter suppression,” according to multiple people familiar with the conversations.
The White House denies telling anyone they can “out-organize voter suppression.” But that does appear to be their strategy — to the extent that you believe the Republican voting reforms actually suppress voter turnout at all.
After all, what “voter suppression” are we actually talking about here? The New York Times mentions “making it harder to cast a ballot early or by mail, limiting drop boxes, and shortening early voting periods.”
But these new options are all changes that were made during a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. Our democracy has survived for hundreds of years without 24-hour dropbox voting or drive-thru voting. All of these changes are so new that there is little substantive basis for anyone to estimate their impact on turnout.
Voter ID requirements, however, do have a long history, and there is a good body of research analyzing the impact on turnout from these laws.
Which is nothing.
Most studies show that voter ID requirements have no measurable effect on turnout.
So, if there is no evidence that Republican voting reform laws suppress votes, then why all of Biden’s “Civil War” rhetoric?
That White House seems to be gambling that they can use this issue to fire their base up without ever having to deliver on it.
They will call Republicans every name in the book, say democracy is on death’s door, get the base fired up, but then not actually apply any pressure to Senate Democrats whose votes are needed to pass Biden’s $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill.
The danger here is that the mismatch between Biden’s rhetoric and his actions on voting rights will begin to demoralize the base instead of energizing it.
This week’s letter is an indication that the demoralization has begun.
