Russia says that it is withdrawing some military forces from Ukraine’s borders.
The evidence for this claim is sparse. Indeed, I understand that while Russian forces are moving at various border positions, they are only doing so within a limited distance from the border. This means they could still conduct a rapid offensive were such an order given by dictator Vladimir Putin. The most likely explanation for this withdrawal and its very public announcement is the Kremlin’s interest in consolidating its stock markets and economy, and in keeping the West off-balance. Note that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Moscow on Tuesday.
At the same time, Putin used a press conference with Scholz, the weakest link in the Western alliance, to warn that the population of the Donbas in southeastern Ukraine was suffering a “genocide.”
Russia appears to be escalating its pressure in other areas.
Various Ukrainian websites, including those of various banks and the Defense Ministry, were subject to denial of service cyberattacks on Tuesday. Further east, the United States is increasingly concerned over possible Russian provocations involving the pro-Russian breakaway area of Transnistria. While part of Moldova, Transnistria identifies as a separate governing entity and borders eastern Ukraine. The State Department advised Americans against traveling to Moldova on Monday, and the U.S. intelligence community is concerned by the activity of Russian GRU intelligence officers in the territory. This activity fits with Russia’s priority strategic interest in maintaining the element of surprise against Ukraine and the West. Putin is patient, having spent the past two months building, at significant cost, his capacity to strike at the most opportune moment.
Invasion likely isn’t coming tomorrow. But it remains very likely to occur in the near future. Putin’s policy toward Ukraine takes root in a sense of destiny born of the Middle Ages, not the transitory political give and take of one moment. Do not underestimate his resolve.
