Week five had some blowouts (Ohio State 48, Nebraska 7) and some surprisingly close games (Clemson 21, North Carolina 20). Alabama and Clemson are off this week, but that doesn’t mean you can take the week off too. Here are three games you need to see on Saturday.
Last week, my picks went 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. So far, so good this season.
Record after week five: straight up – (13-2), against the spread – (11-4)
No. 14 Iowa (4-0) at No. 19 Michigan (3-1) (Noon ET)
Michigan fans are hoping that its 52-0 romp over Rutgers will infuse some life into the team. Despite the loss to Wisconsin in week four, the Wolverines are still talented and still in the hunt for the Big Ten East division crown. But they’ll almost definitely have to win out to do it. Meanwhile, Iowa has gotten the job done each week, setting up a huge Big Ten match-up in Ann Arbor.
The Hawkeyes defense has been great this year, holding opponents to less than nine points per game, but Nate Stanley has done an excellent job of leading the Iowa offense. He has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and is completing his passes at a 64.4% clip. He has also thrown eight touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception this season. Mekhi Sargent is the workhorse behind the Hawkeyes’ formidable ground attack, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Iowa has maintained a really good balance between the run and the pass. The Hawkeyes average 247.5 passing yards per game and 217.5 rushing yards per game. Their rushing average is the fourth-best in the Big Ten and puts them in the top 30 in the country.
While this is their first time leaving the state for a game this season, I think the Hawkeyes will show a lot of poise in front of the 110,000 or so people that will be on hand in Michigan.
Michigan fans, forget The Game against Ohio State. This is the biggest game of the season for the Wolverines right now. A loss would essentially knock the Wolverines out of the Big Ten East race and the College Football Playoff before the season is even at the halfway point. The pressure is on, and a loss could potentially cause heads to roll.
The Wolverines have to improve when it comes to running the ball. They are 10th in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game and have been stifled by both Wisconsin and Army at the point of attack. Take a look at the Rutgers game where Michigan won 52-0. The Wolverines ran the ball 41 times and only managed to put up 141 rushing yards and an average of 3.4 yards per carry. That’s embarrassing.
Shea Patterson has left Michigan fans underwhelmed since arriving on campus. He didn’t light it up last year and certainly hasn’t improved this year. He has thrown for just over 900 yards, is completing fewer than 60% of his passes, and has thrown six touchdowns along with two interceptions. My X-factor in this game will be the battle between each team’s offensive and defensive lines, but especially Michigan’s offensive line against Iowa’s defensive front. Patterson will be forced to throw the ball and make big plays in order for Michigan to win and he’ll need time to do it. If he doesn’t, we could see a lesser-version of what happened with Wisconsin.
The spread: Michigan (-4)
My pick: Michigan still hasn’t shown me that it is for real. While Iowa’s offensive and defensive lines might not be quite as good as Wisconsin’s, I still think the Hawkeyes will win the battle of the line of scrimmage. I’m taking the Hawkeyes to win as road underdogs.
No. 7 Auburn (5-0) at No. 10 Florida (5-0) (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
Florida has yet to earn that marquee win this season while Auburn has two against Oregon and Texas A&M.
Kyle Trask has been very accurate since coming on for the injured Feleipe Franks, but he also needs to take better care of the ball. Trask has completed over 77% of his passes and has thrown for five touchdowns, but he also has two interceptions.
The Gators have the fifth-best scoring defense in the country and are allowing less than nine points per game. They also get CJ Henderson and Jabari Zuniga back from injury. Florida’s defense can’t do it alone, though. They’ll need help from the offense. In these SEC battles, the running game is critical. Both teams are ranked in the top 20 nationally in run defense. Whichever offensive line enforces its will, plays clean football, and gets stronger as the game goes along will give their team a huge edge.
I said it at the beginning of the season and I’ll say it again: In order for Auburn to have the explosive offense that it is capable of having, it must establish and dominate in the run game.
Guess which team is leading the SEC in rushing yards per game? Auburn. The Tigers are averaging 251 yards per game on the ground. JaTarvious Whitlow has been great for Auburn this season with 463 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging five yards per carry. The Tigers will need a big performance from him if they want to leave The Swamp with a win.
True freshman Bo Nix has been a mixed bag this season. He has led the Tigers to win after win, but he’s completing less than 58% of his passes. He has made up for that by throwing seven touchdowns against just two picks and running for 173 yards and a pair of scores. His versatility makes him dangerous. If you’re Florida, the key will be keeping him in the pocket and forcing him to beat you with his arm. Florida’s defensive line is good enough to get some pressure in the pocket and its defensive backs will be waiting to jump on any poor decisions he makes with the ball. If he breaks containment, he’ll be able to pick up some key first downs with his legs.
My X-factor in this game is the turnover battle. Auburn’s offense is really good and Florida’s defense is really good. Giving either team extra possessions and short fields could make the difference in this game.
The spread: Auburn (-2.5)
My pick: I’ve gone 13-2 straight up picking games so far this season and those two losses came from picking against Auburn. I’m taking the plunge and picking the Tigers to win and cover the spread.
No. 25 Michigan State (4-1) at No. 4 Ohio State (5-0) (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Georgia fans knew that Justin Fields was a special player, but nobody knew that he’d be this good when he transferred to Ohio State at the end of last year. Fields has placed himself firmly in the Heisman conversation with his incredible performances so far this season. He has thrown for just under 1,100 yards while throwing for 16 touchdowns without a single interception. He’s completing 69.8% of his passes and has also run for over 200 yards with seven touchdowns. The guy can do it all. Running back J.K. Dobbins has gashed opponents for 654 rushing yards and five touchdowns while averaging over seven yards per carry. If anyone on this offense gets the ball in space, they’re a threat to take it to the house.
The Buckeyes are one of just two schools in the country with a top-five scoring defense and a top-five scoring offense. That means the Spartans are in for an incredibly tough challenge.
Michigan State begins an absolutely brutal three-game stretch with this road game in Columbus against No. 4 Ohio State, a trip to Camp Randall next week to face No. 8 Wisconsin, and then a home game two weeks later against No. 12 Penn State.
Michigan State has been more reliant on throwing the ball than running it this season and they’ve been bailed out time and time again by its defense. While quarterback Brian Lewerke has done a fantastic job of making good decisions with the football, his accuracy has been a big issue. He has thrown for over 1,300 yards along with 10 touchdowns and just one pick, but he’s completing fewer than 60% of his passes. Elijah Collins, who has run for over 400 yards so far this season and is averaging over five yards per carry, will have to have a big game in order for Michigan State to stay in it.
If Michigan State can’t extend drives and control the clock, it’ll pay the price for giving Ohio State too many possessions.
While the Spartans are allowing just 15 points per game so far this year, they’ll be tested by one of the most explosive offenses in the country that can beat you in the air or on the ground. That’s why my X-factor in this game is Michigan State’s linebackers against Ohio State’s run game. If the Spartans can contain and limit the run game and get pressure on and confuse Fields, they’ll have a much better shot at keeping this a low-scoring affair.
The spread: Ohio State (-20.0)
The pick: I don’t see any scenario where the Spartans win a shootout with Ohio State. I think they’ll have to keep it low-scoring in order to have a chance to win. That being said, I expect Justin Fields to have another great game and lead Ohio State to a big win. I’m taking the Buckeyes to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
