The Constitution’s parameters for what may justify the impeachment of a president are “Treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” But what constitutes a “high crime and misdemeanor” is a matter up for debate. While it clearly includes criminal misconduct, when is impeachment the appropriate remedy for something that might be wrong, but not strictly illegal?
As news broke of President Trump’s phone conversations with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, asking for “a favor” regarding investigating corruption and specifically into Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, Democrats moved swiftly in their posture on impeachment and began taking steps to open an impeachment inquiry.
Republicans, meanwhile, have floated the idea that this could be politically advantageous if voters perceive Democrats as overreaching. However, there has been little clarity from the White House and campaign allies about which message strategy Trump’s team is pursuing: persuade people the call was actually a good and justifiable act, or sidestep that question altogether to focus on the question of legality?
On this question, the polling is clear: While voters find President Trump’s conversations with the President of Ukraine to be inappropriate, far fewer believe it is illegal, and therefore there is less agreement over whether such actions rise to the bar for impeachment and removal of a president.
Before the Ukraine phone call and whistleblower report news, while the left wing of the Democratic Party had long favored removing Trump from office, Speaker Nancy Pelosi protected her new House majority by taking a stand against impeachment, shielding vulnerable Democrats in Trump-favorable districts from having to make an uncomfortable vote. Yet the news of Trump’s “do us a favor” request turned the tide and pushed enough wobbly Democrats over the edge into favoring an impeachment inquiry.
What came next was a slight polling shift, suggesting a modest uptick in support for impeachment, particularly the softer ask of requesting an inquiry rather than the tougher ask of “impeach and remove from office.” While a majority of Americans still do not support compelling Trump to leave office, most do not oppose “conducting an inquiry which may or may not lead to impeachment.”
In the short run, the polling questions that focus on inquiry rather than removal from office are the ones that are relevant to our political moment. They are also the questions where one is likeliest to see soft partisans move first. Centrists and Trump-skeptical Republicans may oppose the drastic move of kicking Trump to the curb but may feel more comfortable voicing their frustration through support of further investigation.
But beyond that topline number, smart political observers will keep their eye on a more interesting segment of voters: the “it’s wrong, but not illegal” crowd. Some 63% of Americans say it isn’t appropriate for a president to make a request of a foreign leader like Trump is alleged to have made to the Ukrainian president. It is a much higher number than the percentage of people who support impeachment or even an inquiry. (Less than half of Republicans feel it is appropriate, with 31% saying it is not and another 26% saying it depends or they are unsure.)
When posed as a three-part question, only 28% of Americans believe Trump’s request was “proper” while 41% say it was “illegal.” The most interesting segment, however, are the 31% who say it is “not proper, but not illegal.” That is, people who may disapprove of Trump’s actions or even perhaps his job as president more generally but who may think impeaching a president for something that isn’t illegal is not the right path.
The White House and President Trump’s allies have two strategies before them. They may choose to pursue a strategy of shoring up their base and energizing supporters by saying he did nothing wrong in his phone calls. This is not, however, a majority position or anything close to it at the moment. Instead, while most people think Trump’s actions were wrong, it isn’t clear to most that he actually broke the law. So long as they hold that view, they may continue to believe that Democrats’ efforts to remove Trump from office are a step too far.
