Russia’s predictable invasion of Ukraine is the result of a combination of factors, each of which must be taken into consideration as the West figures out how best to respond to what could easily become the most bloody conflict Europe has seen in decades.
The first and most important factor is, of course, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s ambition and aggression. He always intended to invade Ukraine and piece back together the dissolved Soviet empire — he made that clear in 2008, when he invaded Georgia, and again in 2014, when he invaded and annexed Crimea. He has been waiting for the right moment to continue his expansion ever since. And on Wednesday, that moment came.
Again, this was predictable, which means it was also avoidable. The United States and its Western allies, however, made a series of poor foreign policy decisions over the past several years that not only failed to prevent Putin’s expansion westward but made it more likely. NATO’s open door to Ukraine and Georgia, for example, gave Putin the excuse he needed to treat his neighboring countries like a national security threat that needed to be squashed. Does anyone really believe the U.S. would have reacted differently if China began arming and forming an alliance with Mexico?
To be sure, Putin alone is responsible for the choices he has made. And I tend to believe he is just using the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO as an excuse to justify his long-term territorial ambitions. He did, after all, demand that NATO not only shut the door to Ukraine but kick out roughly a dozen other Eastern European countries as well. But the U.S. and NATO could have removed this excuse from Putin’s playbook entirely by making it forcefully clear that Ukraine cannot and will not join NATO. Our failure to do just that was a massive strategic failure.
Another factor, the importance of which cannot be overstated, is the West’s dependence on Russia’s energy exports. Putin is feeling emboldened because he knows that no matter how many sanctions we impose to choke off his economy, he can and will do the same to ours. Russia supplied about 7% of U.S. crude oil imports in late 2021. In Europe, Russia supplies more than a third of oil imports. And instead of weaning the West off of Russia’s oil, our leaders have spent the past few years making us even more dependent on it. President Joe Biden hampered oil production in the U.S. by ordering halts (being fought out in courts now) to new federal oil and gas drilling and blocking key pipeline projects. He also waived sanctions on the company behind Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany last year and refused to reimpose them until it was too late. Our weakness in this area has made Putin stronger, and he knows it.
A successful response to Putin requires that we not only acknowledge these past failures but learn from them. Enough with the disastrous neoliberal hawkishness that led us to believe we could do whatever we please with whichever country we please without consequence. And enough with the foolish naivety of leftism that convinced our leaders it would be better to outsource our energy production to a madman than drill our own oil.
We need better leaders and better policies. Otherwise, Putin gets to run the show, as he is so gladly demonstrating right now.
