Pledging to normalize relations and remove economic sanctions, China is trying to separate South Korea from its U.S. ally.
That’s my takeaway from the Chinese-South Korean agreement, Tuesday, to move beyond recent acrimony.
Until now, the two nations have been in dispute over South Korea’s decision to deploy the THAAD anti-ballistic missile defense system on its soil. While China believes THAAD’s radar tracking systems will be used to monitor its military forces, South Korea sees the system as a necessary defense against North Korean ballistic missile attacks.
In response, China has restricted South Korean exports and dissuaded its citizens from visiting the South. As Reuters notes, “a halving of inbound Chinese tourists in the first nine months of the year cost the economy $6.5 billion in lost revenue based on the average spending of Chinese visitors in 2016, data from the Korea Tourism Organization shows.”
So what changed, Tuesday?
One thing.
China’s conception of how South Korean policy can best be influenced to serve China’s long-term regional interests.
As tensions between North and South Korea continue to rise, I believe that Chinese president Xi Jinping has decided he cannot afford to keep South Korea aligned with the U.S. Xi likely hopes that by offering the carrot of restored economic relations, he can persuade South Korea to oppose the Trump administration’s increasingly tough approach towards North Korea. Ultimately, Xi wants to displace American influence in the Asia-Pacific and prevent the U.S. from increasing pressure on China vis-a-vis North Korea.
But Xi also senses an opportunity in the differing personalities of President Trump and South Korean President, Moon Jae-in.
While the U.S. and South Korea are playing a good cop-bad cop routine towards North Korea, Xi hopes that if China can offer economic benefits to Moon, the latter will be less amenable to accept Trump’s escalating pressure on Beijing and Pyongyang. It’s Xi-strategy 101: play to fears of escalation and then dangle economic power to win influence over traditional U.S. allies.
Nevertheless, Xi’s rapprochement isn’t all nice-talk. In an editorial celebrating the detente, Chinese state broadcaster, Xinhua, claimed that “Now it’s high time for the two Asian neighbors to honor their agreement, prevent the recurrence of similar scenarios and keep bilateral ties on track.” That “prevent the recurrence of similar scenarios” line has one meaning: don’t push us.
And that’s where the U.S. has its opportunity here. After all, while South Korea might be uncomfortable with the Trump administration’s tough strategy on North Korea, Moon knows that the U.S. is a reliable democratic partner for the long term. He knows that China will cheat South Korea if it believes doing so will serve its interests.
In turn, Trump should both welcome this rapprochement and effectively ignore it. Simultaneously, the president should strengthen U.S. economic and military ties with South Korea while also increasing U.S. pressure on China. That’s the only way we are going to alter Kim Jong Un’s strategic calculus and reach a deal to end this crisis.
