Don’t get overexcited by media coverage, which suggests U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland’s testimony on Wednesday is a game changer. If and until President Trump’s poll numbers plummet to a level far below their present levels in swing states, the vast majority of GOP members of Congress will remain supportive of him.
Sondland’s testimony likely should be a game changer. By his own admission, Sondland was front and center in the White House’s dealings with Ukraine. And Sondland on Wednesday said it was “no secret” among top administration officials that Trump orchestrated “a quid pro quo” to make White House meetings and, he assumed, aid contingent upon Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s agreement to announce an investigation of the Bidens. Sondland helped further these efforts, he said, “because the president directed us to do so.”
This was damaging testimony, but it still doesn’t change the legal or political reality.
On the legal point, the president’s front man on Ukraine, Rudy Giuliani, and his chief of staff Mick Mulvaney are almost certain to deny Sondland’s recounting. And Sondland’s recollection of a phone call in which Trump told him that there “I want nothing … there is no quid pro quo,” will be used by Trump and his defenders as exculpatory evidence. Independent voters are not going to suddenly run to the conviction camp here. Remember, most Americans can’t even pick out Ukraine on a map. The nuances of this impeachment saga are complex and, to many Americans, boring. Most people know Trump is capable of everything he’s accused of here and more, but they factored that into their assessment of him long ago.
Now, consider the political side of things.
The GOP is now Trump’s party. Ninety percent of GOP voters view Trump positively. Second, any Republican help to impeach Trump would spark fury from Trump’s base. And Republicans know that if Trump is unseated, there is no replacement 2020 presidential candidate who can save them. Vice President Mike Pence might be best placed to recover those voters, but he likely lacks the charisma to consolidate independent voters in the Rust Belt states that were so crucial to Trump’s 2016 election.
So, don’t get overly fixated on Sondland’s effect. It was damaging, yes, but it was far from catastrophic in shifting the legal or political ground. The game remains afoot.
