Last decade, beginning in 2012, 33 states liberalized their laws on marijuana, 17 of them through ballot referenda. But voters in a few states have stubbornly refused to follow the trend, and it appears that Arizonans might well continue on that track.
In 2016, Arizona voters narrowly defeated Proposition 205, which would have legalized recreational marijuana. The final margin was less than 3 percentage points and just under 70,000 votes.
The state’s residents will again be voting this fall on Proposition 207, which would have the same effect. A new poll of 600 likely Arizona voters from OH Predictive Insights shows that the measure still leads — but only by a hair. And there has been a very sharp downturn in support for legalization since the same poll was conducted in July. At that time, support for marijuana legalization hit 62%, with only 32% opposed. In this latest poll, however, support has plummeted to 46%, with 45% opposed.
A rule of thumb for ballot propositions (not always reliable, but certainly relevant) is that they tend to fail when they are polling below 50%.
What dragged down the level of support for Proposition 207? According to pollster Mike Noble, the opposition to the proposition has been “anemic.” In the notes on the July poll, he noted that “unlike 2016, no credible group has raised significant money to oppose the marijuana legalization.”
If this drop is more than just a statistical blip, then that is an astounding change of fortunes for the legalization campaign. Another defeat for legalized marijuana in Arizona could confound widely held beliefs that universal legalization is a fait accompli.
