To what extent will Republicans be punished in future elections if their efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare ultimately fail?
In a column for Axios, Drew Altman of the Kaiser Family Foundation critiqued as “unexamined conventional wisdom” the notion that voters will exact retribution on the GOP if the party cannot repeal. There’s reason to believe Obamacare’s supporters care more about this fight than Obamacare’s opponents.
Altman examined polling conducted in the weeks after the November election that showed only seven percent of Trump voters said healthcare was the biggest factor in their vote for president. For general Republican voters, that number was five percent. For both cohorts, roughly 40 percent of people said the “direction of the country” was the biggest factor in their vote.
A Politico/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday found 23 percent of registered voters listed healthcare as the top set of issues on their mind when casting ballots in federal elections. According to the poll, 30 percent of Democrats say it’s their top issue, compared with only 15 percent of Republicans. Among Tea Party supporters, that number is only 14 percent; among independents it was 23 percent.
Among Democrats, liberals, African-Americans, and those whose income is less than $50,000, more respondents listed healthcare as their top issue than any other issue. If the poll is correct, healthcare is a bigger priority on the Left than on the Right.
But it’s a an incontrovertible fact that Republicans have built campaigns around pledges to repeal Obamacare for almost a decade, sweeping midterms in 2010 and 2014 and winning back the presidency. The issue seemed, at least, to resonate with voters, some of whom deeply resented the Affordable Care Act on an ideological level, and more of whom were experiencing higher premiums.
It’s possible that perceived resonance was either (a) overestimated or (b) more of a reflection on general dislike of President Obama himself than his signature policy.
Nevertheless, Republicans should not be too quick to take comfort in these numbers. Whether or not healthcare is the top priority for their base, pledging in no uncertain terms for years to take a specific action and then failing to do so when given the opportunity will impact voters’ general impression of the party. How seriously will right-leaning voters be able to take future pledges to bring tax relief, balance the budget, or create jobs when the party memorably broke its most salient commitment?
Altman is helpful to remind observers of Republican voters’ comparatively low prioritization of healthcare issues. But beyond the potential policy failure, if the GOP fails to persuade voters it’s capable of delivering on a top promise, the party could potentially suffer an image crisis with a significant chunk of its own base.
For proof, look no further than the Drudge Report, where a banner headline on Wednesday morning asked, “WILL THEY BOTCH TAX CUTS NEXT?”
Emily Jashinsky is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
