President Trump is reportedly floating the notion of replacing acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. For numerous unrelated reasons, most directly affecting Trump’s reelection odds, this is an abysmal idea.
Most devastating to both Trump’s personal fortune and the country at large, Mnuchin vacating his post at the Treasury Department could be enough to kick the nation into a recession. Of Trump’s 15 current cabinet appointees, Mnuchin is one of just seven who has served from the start of Trump’s presidency. Even prior to any whiff of impeachment proceedings or Trump alienating his own allies with foreign policy faux pas, the Senate only confirmed Mnuchin by a six-vote margin. If Trump does tap Mnuchin to replace Mulvaney, his administration is looking at yet another grueling confirmation process, one that could irk Republicans while he needs their support the most. Trump already needs the Senate to confirm a homeland security secretary, director of national intelligence, and administrator of the Small Business Administration. Does he want to throw another Cabinet position into the mix?
The only thing worse for markets, which have proven warm enough to Mnuchin’s fair sense of finance, than an effective vacancy at Treasury amid such tenuous economic weather would be a shoddy replacement. The brain drain in Trump’s Beltway is real, and the odds of him finding a capable candidate for Treasury secretary are slim.
And Trump is personally invested in this, too. He has a real shot at reelection if the longest bull market in history continues. But if markets tank and the economy contracts, he’s finished.
Furthermore, Mnuchin’s politics lean left in the areas where Trump is predisposed to follow him. Opposing the since-departed national security adviser John Bolton, Mnuchin fought for extending waivers for Iranian nuclear programs and keeping the groundwork of the disastrous Iran deal alive. Most recently, he defended delays in sanctioning Turkey after the Turks began their incursion against Kurdish forces in northern Syria.
Mnuchin is doing a fine enough job at the Treasury. Why mess with that? And why mess with Mulvaney, who could flip on Trump as impeachment proceedings continue. As a former White House official put it to the Atlantic regarding Trump and Mulvaney, “They sink or swim together.”
