The Trump administration is hoping for the swift departure of Nicolas Maduro after taking steps to push the Venezuelan leader toward the exit. But recent attempts at regime change show the transition may not be so simple.

The recognition of National Assembly President Juan Guaido as the country’s new president, combined with harsh sanctions on Venezuela’s national oil company, PDVSA, do ratchet up pressure on Maduro. But it’s wishful thinking to expect Maduro to hop on a plane tomorrow — or even in the next few weeks or months — seeking asylum in Cuba, Russia, China, or whatever country will have him.