We have no direct evidence of a specific coronavirus quarantine accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. But there is a cover-up in relation to the laboratory itself. Both concerns should be of interest to us.
President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo now say there is significant evidence that the laboratory is the source of the outbreak. Others, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, said there isn’t evidence for that assertion. Trump and Pompeo have access to the most sensitive intelligence that the U.S. government collects. Simply due to his rank and position, Fauci does not.
ABC News on Thursday reported that “an intelligence official says there is no signals or human intelligence backing up the idea” that the lab was the source of the coronavirus outbreak. Axios also echoed earlier CNN reporting that suggests U.S. allies see no evidence of a conspiracy involving the lab.
But as I explained earlier this week, this reporting is only half-right.
While I understand it is accurate to say that there is no intelligence reporting to suggest a direct link between the laboratory and the viral outbreak, there is very compelling intelligence reporting to suggest a cover-up of current and past activities at the laboratory. In that sense, it is a stretch for ABC News to say that there is no intelligence “backing up the idea” that the lab was the outbreak source.
The reality is that the United States has tracked a significant Chinese effort to alter relevant records and shield and disguise personnel movements and operations involving the lab. Most of this analysis centers on what’s called “big data” extrapolation, or activity pattern analysis. This intelligence has led at least one very close U.S. ally to support continued prioritized investigation of the lab.
So, why is China proceeding with a cover-up? After all, if Beijing has nothing to hide with the lab and knows the U.S. wants to find out anything it can about the lab and the virus, why not just offer maximum transparency?
One possibility is that this cover-up simply reflects Beijing’s instinctive impulse for secrecy, even when secrecy is not necessary. Another alternative is that compartmented elements of the lab had been involved in completely unrelated bioweapons research. This coronavirus is not a bioweapon, but China does use civilian facilities such as the lab as cover for elements of its bioweapons research program. If this is the case in Wuhan, it certainly wouldn’t want foreigners snooping around.
I’m inclined to believe otherwise. China’s cover-up at the lab is on a scale and of a quality to indicate something beyond a simple Chinese impulse toward secrecy. Nor is the cover-up focused distinctly on the Peoples Liberation Army activities, which would be expected if this had something to do with bioweapons.
We’ll have to wait and see. But don’t discount the lab theory just yet.
