On Thursday, the United States and India strengthened bilateral relations with leaders from the two countries, agreeing to open a secure military communications hotline. That is a clear signal of stronger ties and paves the way for the U.S. to sell advanced military technology to our ally. For India-U.S. relations, this is a clear win, but when it comes to the big picture of geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific, the new deal is a bet on the future that won’t pay off for some time.
China is and has been rising rapidly in Asia and beyond. India, despite deep disputes with Beijing, is unlikely to do anything to provoke China or significantly stand in its way, for now, when it comes to regional development.
India is not involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, but it is part of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation. And India, although strong and rapidly developing itself, is not on pace with China. This both keeps the country interested in Beijing’s cash and development offers and weakens India’s interest in forcefully pushing back.
For the U.S., while we can and should be doing all that we can to strengthen ties with India, it’s going to take a lot more than this military agreement. Currently, the Trump administration is considering imposing new sanctions on India over its plans to buy Russian-made air defense systems and imports of Iranian oil. For the administration, which is trying to renegotiate the Iranian deal after withdrawing U.S. support and sanctioning Russia for its military actions, those are big sticking points. But you can’t be all stick when Beijing is handing out carrots.
Of course, President Trump’s lack of understanding about trade (India has a large trade surplus with the U.S. and has been hit with tariffs) and his tendency to mock India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn’t help either.
Already, China has made strategic regional moves that put pressure on India, including its acquisition of a port in Sri Lanka that potentially gives Beijing greater control over the Indian Ocean, Beijing’s increasing efforts to build a dominate naval force, including a recently competed aircraft carrier, and, of course, Beijing’s deepening economic relations with pretty much every country that surrounds India.
Although China has not yet shown how far it might be willing to push countries into political alignment, recent efforts to bring even U.S. companies to heel on Taiwan give some indication of how Beijing may flex its power.
For Washington, stronger ties with New Delhi are a good thing, and this agreement is a rare bit of good news. But this is not a sufficient victory for countering China. Complacency here will allow Beijing to continue its development unchecked while the U.S. pats itself on the back.
