President Trump wanted to be the hero of North Korean denuclearization. But a new report makes clear what has been known for months: His claims of victory were unwarranted.
On Monday, Beyond Parallel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies published study detailing undeclared ballistic missile activity at 13 sites among an estimated 20 maintained by the regime. The report shows in detail how North Korea is concealing its nuclear capabilities and how those capabilities might be deployed.
Key analysis of the report highlights a base known as Sakkanmol. That base is just 50 miles from the Demilitarized Zone and is quite close to South Korea’s capital, Seoul. In a narrow valley, the base has seven tunnels that could hold 18 transporters for moving missiles.
Unlike U.S. missiles stored underground in silos, North Korea’s transports could easily be deployed to to launch sites and could be ready to fire in less than an hour. That allows North Korea to easily reposition its nuclear missiles as needed.
Sakkanmol is part of a broader array of bases arranged in three belts that host tactical short-range missiles and mid-range missiles that could hit South Korea, Japan, and U.S. bases in the Pacific. Other bases are home to the intercontinental ballistic missiles that could hit the United States.
None of this is surprising given North Korea’s history with denuclearization, but the fact that the North Koreans are cheating is a blow for Trump, who has stuck to his optimistic story about denuclearization.
Republican loss of the House of Representatives in the midterms has increased pressure for Trump to achieve foreign policy goals, as divided rule in Washington will hamper his domestic goals. That leaves Trump in a bad place, where he is at his most unpredictable. For North Korea denuclearization, Trump’s response depends how much the president feels that he has personally been deceived by Kim Jong Un, whom he previously said he fell in love with.
If he takes strong personal offense, that could lead to a return of Trump’s attacks on Kim Jong Un as “Rocket Man” and the like.
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2018
That turn of events would indisputably hinder talks with North Korea and rekindle the resentment that that Trump has, perhaps, eaten away at thus far.
That would leave the world less safe and closer to a nuclear exchange. It would also be bad for Republicans, who need foreign policy victories to bolster faltering GOP appeal.
Trump, of course, can avert all this by simply acknowledging the setbacks and imperfections of negotiations while pushing forward with talks and, perhaps, exercising more caution before claiming success next time.
