Sources say Donald Trump will announce Mike Pence as his pick for vice president Friday. Here are a few brief thoughts.
Who?
Mike Pence isn’t exactly a household name, so here’s a brief biography: Pence is the Republican governor of Indiana. First elected in 2012 , he would have been up for re-election in 2016 but state law bars Pence from being on the ballot as a candidate for both vice president and governor. Pence’s predecessor, Mitch Daniels, already ruled out running for governor again. Pence won his 2012 election by three percentage points and had no opposition in the Republican primary.
Pence sparked a national debate over religious freedom when he signed the Religious Freedom Restoration Act into law in March 2015. The law sparked objections nationwide for supposedly allowing discrimination against LGBT persons. Just eight days after the initial legislation was signed, Pence signed a revised version of the law to prohibit discrimination in refusing to provide goods, services, facilities or accommodation to anyone based on their race, age, sex, sexual orientation or other factors.
Prior to being governor, Pence served in the United States House of Representatives from Indiana’s 6th district. He was chair of the House Republican Conference for two years. Pence is 57 years old. His wife’s name is Karen, and they have three children. Pence converted from Catholicism to evangelical Christianity.
Before running for Congress, Pence hosted an Indiana talk radio show for eight years and an Indianapolis Sunday morning TV show for five years.
Will Pence matter?
Despite the conventional wisdom that vice presidential nominees help deliver their home states or a key demographic, research shows otherwise. There are only rare circumstances when a vice presidential nominee matters: They have to have served their state politically for a long time, and their state has to be relatively small. For example, Joe Biden served Delaware in the U.S. Senate for 36 years, a state that has the 45th-highest population in the country. Pence has been an elected official from Indiana, a state with the 16th-highest population in the country, for less than 16 years.
Besides, Indiana probably won’t be a decisive state. If Trump is having trouble winning Indiana, a state Mitt Romney won by 10 points, he’s going to have trouble in many more important parts of the map. Pence’s race and sex, white and male, isn’t exactly a demographic Trump is struggling with.
If Trump is trying to pick a nominee who is supposed to help his electoral prospects, it’s not clear how he thinks Pence will help. Perhaps Trump thinks Pence’s religion and religiosity will help him with evangelical Christians. Nearly 80 percent of evangelical Protestants plan to vote for Trump, but 45 percent of that group says they are mainly voting against Clinton. Perhaps this will energize them.
What does this mean for “Never Trump”?
Pence is a conservative roughly aligned with the Ted Cruz wing of the GOP. He endorsed Cruz right before the Indiana primary in April, but when Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee in May, Pence was quick to endorse Trump. Some Cruz or Pence fans will be lured back to Trump thanks to the Pence pick, but I have a hard time imagining it will be enough to make a difference.
Either way, it’s not clear how anyone else on the Trump short list would have helped Trump. James Pindell of the Boston Globe wrote about Trump’s shortlist, “There are no women. There are no minorities. There are no rising stars in the party. And there are no members of Congress.” Who exactly would Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, etc. have appealed to that didn’t already support Trump?
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
