By all accounts, it’s been a good week for Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia’s invasion.
Momentum can be difficult to measure in finite terms on the battlefield. Still, you know when you see it, and we are seeing it right now. A combination of artillery, cruise missiles, special operations, and good intelligence has shifted momentum in Kyiv’s favor.
Panic is in the Crimean air as Russian tourists scramble to get out of the occupied peninsula. The bumper-to-bumper traffic exiting Crimea’s coastal beaches was reminiscent of the dead stop experienced by the Kremlin’s forces as they lumbered toward Kyiv in March. This isn’t how Putin or his propaganda machine are presenting the war on Russian state-controlled media, but it is the reality nevertheless.
At the forefront of this momentum shift is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. HIMARS has given Ukraine an extended operational reach. A successful strike on the Zaky air base in Crimea may have destroyed as many as 21 aircraft and four ammunition depots — the source of the attack remains unknown, which only heightens the anxiety of Russian soldiers occupying bases in Crimea. This attack was followed by a second strike against a military installation in Crimea, this time at a military storage facility near Dzhankoi. After first blaming an accident, Russia later attributed the incident to sabotage. Russian media also reported that a military airfield located approximately 35 miles southwest of Dzhankoi was on fire. No battle damage assessment was reported, but as many as 12 Su-24М and 12 Su-25СМ aircraft are believed assigned to the regiment.
In the Kherson oblast, bridges spanning the Dnipro river have been damaged by Ukrainian artillery, essentially cutting off upwards of 20,000 Russian soldiers on the west bank of the river from their leadership and supply lines. This leaves them to more-or-less fend for themselves in the face of a Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake the city of Kherson. Die-in-place missions aren’t good for morale.
But what could turn out to be one of the more devastating blows to Putin’s Donbas offensive was the artillery strike on the Wagner Group headquarters, courtesy of a photo published on Telegram by Russian war correspondent Sergey Sreda showing the group’s headquarters in a Popasna residential building. That photo essentially served as a “direct artillery fire here” message. Wagner’s headquarters provided command and control for offensive operations in the northeastern Donetsk oblast. Also killed in the strike was the owner of Russia’s disinformation Grayzone Telegram channel.
Success instills confidence as failure instills doubt. Time will determine if these setbacks to Putin’s “special military operation” alter the course of the war, but they certainly are a step in the right direction. Sustaining success in the challenge, the U.S. and NATO should help Ukraine keep its foot on the gas pedal.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), the DIA, the NSA, and the NGA. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
