Thursday is the day college basketball fans have been waiting for since Villanova cut down the nets last year in San Antonio. March Madness tips off at noon, starting 24 hours of exciting first-round tournament games spread across 36 hours. The madness continues until April 8, when one team who outlasts the rest will cut down the nets in Minneapolis and hoist the NCAA men’s college basketball trophy. Here are four teams you might see there:
Final Four Favorites
Duke (No. 1 seed, East Region) – You had to know Duke would make the list. The Blue Devils are a 2-1 favorite to win the whole tournament, odds that are almost absurd for any team, even one with this much talent. Duke has three potential top-10 picks in this year’s NBA draft. While it’s true that the Blue Devils have been taken down by some lesser teams over the last 10 years (Lehigh, Mercer, and South Carolina en route to the Gamecocks’ run to the Final Four), Mike Krzyzewski has led them to the national title in two of their last three trips as a No. 1 seed. Duke is the obvious, but easy choice.
North Carolina (No. 1 seed, Midwest Region) – Fun Fact: Roy Williams is 28-0 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament! The Tar Heels made it to the Elite Eight or further in each of their last seven appearances as a No. 1 seed. UNC shared the ACC regular season title with Virginia and swept its two games against Duke, nearly beating the Blue Devils for a third time in the ACC Tournament semifinals. I love their chances to make another deep run and make the Final Four.
Michigan (No. 2 seed, West Region) – Since losing to Louisville in the national title game in 2013, John Beilein has proven it wasn’t a fluke, guiding Michigan to an Elite Eight, Sweet 16 and last year’s national title game. The Wolverines finished just one game shy of tying for the Big Ten regular season title and have one of the nation’s best defenses. They also own wins against Villanova, UNC, and Purdue. Michigan did lose twice to Michigan State in the regular season and once more in the Big Ten Tournament title game, but the Spartans are a fantastic squad as evidenced by their own No. 2 seed.
Virginia (No. 1 seed, South Region) – I know that people will bring up their devastating loss to UMBC last year as evidence that UVA should never be trusted. That’s fair, but every year is different. Virginia has the nation’s top scoring defense and one of the more efficient offenses in the country. That’s a balance that the Cavaliers haven’t traditionally had. In the past, Virginia struggled to score when it needed a bucket. UVA is 40.9 percent from beyond the arc this season. The Cavaliers can get buckets in the paint and can also beat you from deep. I understand why people might be hesitant to pick them, but I look at their record in an incredibly tough ACC and I see an incredibly talented, well-coached, and extremely motivated team.
Buyer Beware
Purdue (No. 3 seed, South Region) – The Big Ten regular season co-champions could face a potentially brutal second-round matchup with one of my sleeper picks, defending national champion Villanova. While ‘Nova isn’t as talented as it was a year ago, the Wildcats still managed to win both the Big East regular season and tournament titles. This Purdue squad is heavily reliant on Carsen Edwards for its offense. When he struggles, they struggle. If Villanova gets past St. Mary’s and faces Purdue, I’m giving the edge to defending champions Jay Wright and Co.
LSU (No. 3 seed, East Region) – LSU’s head coach, Will Wade, was suspended indefinitely earlier this month when reports emerged that an FBI wiretap caught him discussing an offer to a recruit. The team has and will continue to be inundated with questions about it. Despite winning the SEC regular season title and having a lot of talent on the roster, LSU suffered an embarrassing upset to Florida in their first SEC tournament game. I don’t think they’ll make a deep run in the tournament. The Tigers are very balanced on offense with four players averaging double-digit points per game, but they are really bad when it comes to three-point percentage. LSU shoots 32.2 percent from downtown. That won’t cut it in crunch time. Maryland (my alma mater) definitely runs hot and cold but is also solid in many areas, could be a very tough second-round matchup. Even if the Tigers advance to the Sweet 16, they would still likely have to beat Tom Izzo and the second-seeded Michigan State Spartans.
Kentucky (No. 2 seed, Midwest Region) – The Wildcats’ leading scorer and rebounder, PJ Washington, has been in a walking boot since last weekend. Head coach John Calipari says that’s merely a precautionary measure. It could be trouble or it could be nothing. Kentucky should get past its first-round matchup with or without him. Wofford, who the Wildcats might get in the second round, is dangerous. So are Iowa State and Houston, another one of my sleeper picks. Kentucky has a young and very talented team, but I think the Wildcats will disappoint.
Texas Tech (No. 3 seed, West Region) – I’m not convinced that Jarrett Culver will be Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier. He’s an outstanding player and is probably one of the top 15 players in the whole tournament, but his team struggled for much of the season on offense. Texas Tech shared the Big 12 regular season title with Kansas State and broke the Kansas Jayhawks’ incredible record-setting stranglehold on the Big 12 regular season title thanks in large part to its suffocating defense. That defense is strong enough to make up for a lot of the offense’s shortcomings. But in crunch time, opponents will try to smother Culver and someone else will have to step up. Does Texas Tech have that guy? I’m not sure.
Sleepers
Villanova (No. 6 seed, South Region) – I’m a fan of the defending champs. Despite losing three first-round NBA draft picks and the national player of the year, the Wildcats won the Big East regular season and tournament titles. Jay Wright and ‘Nova are a really tough out. If they can get past St. Mary’s, which beat Gonzaga to win the West Coast Conference tournament title, I think they’ll find themselves in the Elite Eight with a chance to advance to yet another Final Four.
Syracuse (No. 8 seed, West Region) – Three years ago, Jim Boeheim led Syracuse to an Elite Eight as a 10-seed. Last year, he led the Orange to the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed. That 2-3 zone has been giving teams headaches for decades. They lost four of their last five to end the regular season, but three of those four losses were to UNC, Duke, and Virginia. If Syracuse can get past Baylor, the Orange will have to face the nation’s top offense in No. 1-seeded Gonzaga. Syracuse beat Duke in Durham in overtime earlier this season, so they can go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the country in crunch time. I think they have the potential to upset Gonzaga and bust a lot of brackets in the process.
Houston (No. 3 seed, Midwest Region) – If Michigan’s Jordan Poole hadn’t hit one of the greatest shots in Michigan history, Houston would have been in the Sweet 16 last year as a six seed. The Cougars don’t play in the nation’s toughest conference, but they cleaned up in the AAC, going 16-2 on the way to a 31-3 regular season record. They have a top-10 defense, which is something that almost always travels, and they rebound the ball very well. I could definitely see them beating a young and relatively inexperienced Kentucky team in a Sweet 16 matchup.
[Also read: March Madness doesn’t need the excessive First Four games]
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
