Experts are now telling us that there is a 50 percent chance that the bird flu virus will mutate and spread from human to human. And HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt told Congress recently that the bird flu is for sure coming to the United States: “It’s just a matter of time — it may be very soon,” he told lawmakers.
This isn’t the first time Leavitt has warned us.
Late last year there was a “tabletop exercise” at the White House to test of the “readiness of federal agencies” for the bird flu pandemic. Regarding the exercise, Leavitt said: “This is about being ready for what inevitably will come”.
However, contrary to Leavitt’s warnings, White House homeland security officials have minimized the risks, saying that they “currently have no evidence that a pandemic flu in this country is imminent.”
Imminent or not, here’s what we know would happen if there is a bird flu pandemic: 92 million Americans would get sick, more than 2 million would die, schools would close, businesses would and essential public services would shut down. In short, it would be nothing short of a catastrophe — making Katrina pale by comparison.
In spite of this, our homeland security officials do not think the federal government should have a leading role in the response to the pandemic. In fact, according to these officials, the state and local governments should have the leading role. Consider this comment from a White House homeland security adviser during last year’s tabletop exercise: “This is not going to be a federal answer to this problem. The federal government has a support role to play. But frankly, I think, really important is the state and local efforts.”
This is mostly political “spin” — and hearing it suggests that bureaucratic excuses are being put in place before the event — and remember, this is an event that Leavitt calls “a matter of time.”
Rather than pre-emptively pointing fingers of responsibility at state and local governments, the administration should be busy with substantive plans, both for the short and longer term. Here’s what the plans should address:
If the state and local agencies are to be the primary responders for a pandemic, they had better be told so by the administration — in no uncertain terms — and funded quickly and adequately to address it, fairly and equitably. It will soon be way too late for the Congress to simply “throw money” at state and local governments and expect them to be able to be responsive — in short, we are running out of time.
The federal government should be getting all the vaccine and drug producers lined up to begin immediate and high-volume production of the medicines of choice. This should be happening right now, with federal money.
Allocations of the medicines of choice — or at least the process to determine these allocations — should be agreed to in advance with state and local authorities. Otherwise, poorer states will get the short end of the stick, even if they are hit the hardest, which they may well be.
The federal government should draft and issue uniform guidelines and regulations to accompany the funding for the states — this should be happening right now.
Finally, and perhaps most important of all, the mid to longer term issues associated with absolutely assured production — including large-scale government production — of the vaccines and drugs necessary to address worst case viral pandemics, should be addressed now.
In short, it’s simply no answer that there is “not going to be a federal answer to the problem.” Of course there will be — this because a bird flu pandemic will not only kill millions of us, it will also guarantee the replacement of any political administration that continues to say such things. The president is not well served by those in his administration who may think that the responsibility for responding to a pandemic flu is a mainly a game of bureaucratic chicken, whether it’s bad pun or not.
Daniel Gallington is a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies in Arlington.
