Within a mere minute of the polls closing in South Carolina, Joe Biden won his first state in three presidential campaigns over more than 30 years. Right as the commentariat counted him out, Uncle Joe salvaged his Oval Office hopes, just in time to cut into Bernie Sanders’s crucial Super Tuesday lead.
That every newsroom in the country could call the primary for Biden as the doors closed across the state signifies that Biden’s lead is wide enough to put him potentially at the forefront of the national delegate count. But even earlier in the day, exit polling made clear that Biden boosted the demographics he needs to have a fighting shot at the Democratic nomination.
The once (and potentially future) front-runner benefited from an electorate more hostile to Medicare For All than any other primary yet. Just half of South Carolinians reported supporting Medicare For All in exit polls, and 44%, nearly 10% more than in Nevada, reported opposition to the signature plan of the Sanders campaign. A staggering 7-in-10 voters were 45 or older, according to CNN exit polls, more than any other primary state thus far. But South Carolina is a single state. Most important to Biden’s long-term bid for the presidency are the metrics that prove, yes, in both a primary and a general, he is electable.
For starters, Biden didn’t just prove durable with black voters. He proved indomitable. Biden didn’t just earn 85% favorability and nearly 60% support with black voters overall. He managed to clinch black voters under 45 and self-identified liberal black voters. Considering that the last candidate to win the Democratic nomination without majority support from black voters in the primary was Michael Dukakis, who wound up losing 40 states in the general to George H.W. Bush, dominant resilience with black voters is a requirement, not an option, for Democratic hopefuls.
Furthermore, an astounding 69% of voters reported that the next president should be as conservative as Barack Obama or even more so. Only a quarter said the nominee ought to be more liberal than the former vice president. Biden also crucially overperformed with women, while Sanders’s support with women lagged by 10 points behind his support with men, furthering the former vice president’s case that he’s best equipped to beat President Trump.
Super Tuesday still looms large for Biden, who will likely perform far worse than Sanders. But if his success can provide even just a few points of a boon in friendly states, he could prevent Sanders from gaining an increasingly insurmountable delegate lead.
Southerners have long warned that the primary isn’t over until the Palmetto state sings, and tonight might have just proven them right.
