Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking for a win, not a negotiated peace.
His new commander for the war in Ukraine, Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, comes with an established track record of brutal effectiveness. His nickname, the “Butcher of Syria,” is an indicator of the path Russia will likely now take against Ukraine. We’ve already seen Russian forces carry out repeated atrocities against civilians in the country. These include the summary execution of civilians, the rape of women, and the kidnapping of other innocents.
The only thing that seems set to change is the geographic region of Ukraine where the war will now refocus — the tactics will be the same. In the Army, this is called “lift and shift fires.”
While Russian artillery, ballistic missiles, and airstrikes are being applied to set the conditions for a renewed ground offensive, satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies shows a Russian military convoy stretching at least 8 miles long, consisting of hundreds of armored vehicles and trucks carrying artillery and support equipment, moving toward the Donbas region. Coupled with the U.S. announcement last week that Russia is mobilizing more than 60,000 reservists and that there are “indications that they [Russia] are drawing on forces from Georgia,” it’s clear that Russia is consolidating its combat power. The intent seems to be an effort to secure the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine. Russia might also seek to extend operations into Odesa or threaten Moldova.
But Ukraine isn’t likely to just roll over. Ukrainians received a morale boost when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made an unannounced visit to Kyiv over the weekend and announced a pledge of new military assistance. This includes 120 armored vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems.
Retired Army Col. Jon Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
