Evoking a 1986 bombing raid against former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, Sen. Lindsey Graham on Friday called for President Trump to assassinate Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.
Graham tweeted, “I recommend President Trump consider a decisive blow this time around — do to Assad what Reagan tried to do to [Gaddafi]. Time to reset the table in the Middle East. Will introduce Senate resolution declaring Assad a war criminal and expect to receive bipartisan support.”
I disagree.
Don’t get me wrong, evidence of Assad’s May chemical weapons attack — that which is motivating Graham here — challenges U.S. national security and demands a commensurate response. Assad is a brutal dictator who has killed hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians and displaced many millions more. He is mocking the world with his chemical warfare against innocents.
That said, killing Assad would be a mistake.
First, it would set a dangerous precedent to begin assassinating foreign leaders in situations outside of war. States such as Russia and Iran, who hardly need an excuse as it is, would be quite ready to point this out and engage in more of the same. Russia might kill the elected leader of Georgia, or Iran might kill the elected leader of Lebanon, and then say, “We’re only following the American lead.”
While those nations regularly engage in assassinations against their political opponents, they are currently cautious about assassinating foreign heads of state. We should not encourage them to change that.
There’s also the risk of not knowing who might follow Assad. Were he to die, the Russians and Iranians would have the most influence over who replaced him in power. That would mean a new leader serving Russia’s strategy of subversion in the Middle East, and Iran’s aggression.
Moreover, it’s not as if Trump’s only option against Assad is to kill him.
Were he so inclined, Trump could — and in my opinion should — order a significant bombing campaign to destroy Assad’s chemical weapons infrastructure, and to weaken his air forces in their ability to attack civilians. Trump might also drop some JDAMs onto Damascus’ Umayyad Square.
But the key here is that killing Assad represents an unjustifiable risk.
