Britain and the European Union remain deadlocked as they pursue a post-Brexit trade agreement. Both sides are talking with increased urgency, facing a year-end deadline.
Three major issues are at contention: the measure of any post-deal EU fishing access to British waters, Britain’s future trading relationships with other nations, and the enforceability of remedies for any breaches to an agreement.
The EU fishing concern is relevant in that British waters are home to some of the most lucrative fishing stocks in Europe. EU politicians do not want to see their domestic fishing interests lose access to these waters. Britain sees it differently. One of the primary motivations of many pro-Brexit voters during the 2016 national referendum was their understanding that Brexit would see restored sovereign authority. The joined symbolic-economic interest of control over waters makes this a particularly powerful political interest in certain Conservative Party-held parliamentary seats. Prime Minister Boris Johnson cannot easily afford to alienate these members of his party if he is to succeed in his overarching ambition of establishing longer-term Conservative control over the government.
The EU is also concerned that Britain will use its national independence to forge more attractive foreign trade relationships. Beset by complex regulations and lethargic external trade negotiation structures, the EU fears a situation in which Britain offers growing economies such as India a far more attractive trade prospect than the EU can offer. The same principle applies to banking and internet-related commerce, two areas where the British government is especially focused.
The extension to these various concerns is the EU’s fear that Britain will water down the enforceability parameters of a deal. Brussels knows that if it’s unable to impose rapid costs on Britain for a breach of any agreement, Britain will have added incentive to ignore more constricting elements of the deal.
Will we see an agreement before Dec. 31?
I think so. Britain is a net importer from the EU, and in the context of coronavirus-related economic challenges, many of the EU’s 27 different national governments are putting heavy pressure on the bloc’s leaders to reach a deal. These governments don’t want to lose a valued export market in a situation in which their economies are already struggling. Britain knows this. In part, Johnson’s hard-line negotiating stance flows from his access to British intelligence reports, which give him behind-the-scenes insight into the great internal pressure on his EU opposites to make a deal.
For those interested in trade and the future of British-EU relations, the run-up to New Year’s Eve will be an eventful one.
