If North Korea attempts to delay the summit away from June 12 in Singapore, President Trump should cancel it.
There are two reasons why Trump cannot allow Kim Jong Un to set the timetable here.
First off, any delay will allow Kim more time to continue developing his intercontinental ballistic missile program — specifically, the warhead vehicle that makes any ICBM a weapon of mass destruction rather than a missile that can travel a great distance. The operative issue here is that much of the outstanding work on Kim’s warhead program can be completed in a laboratory or factory out of sight of U.S. intelligence and without the need to launch new missiles.
This work primarily centers on the warhead vehicle’s ability to successfully re-enter the atmosphere and accurately hit its target. It’s an especially important concern in that North Korea is a matter of months, perhaps weeks, from completing that work. Time, put simply, is not on America’s side.
Yet another problem with a possible delay to the summit is that it would cede Trump’s strategic initiative to Kim and his Chinese patrons. Trump presently is offering Kim a binary choice between “a great deal” of removed sanctions, investment from South Korea, and U.S. security guarantees and “a bad deal” of greatly increased sanctions and possible military action.
If the summit is delayed, however, Kim will have reason to believe that Trump’s basic negotiating position is malleable. That will in turn encourage China to qualify any new pressure on Kim on reciprocal U.S. concessions, perhaps regarding China’s island campaign. A summit delay will leave Trump in a position of isolated weakness.
Of course, that’s the whole point from Kim’s perspective. Kim is likely being advised by the Chinese and his intelligence chief, Kim Yong Chol, to test Trump’s commitment to playing hard ball as the landmark summit approaches. Kim Yong Chol is a hardliner who is willing to roll the dice against U.S. interests and reflects a North Korean base of belief that the U.S. is weak and can be bent to appeasement.
Still, Trump can’t really blame anyone else but himself here. Just last week, the president canceled a long scheduled U.S.-South Korean military exercise because Kim Jong Un complained about it. That acquiescence told Beijing and Pyongyang that the tough negotiator isn’t that tough after all.
In turn, Trump must now stick to the summit as planned or cancel it in its entirety. Effective diplomacy depends on Trump now sticking to the summit as planned or canceling it in favor of a vacation in Martha’s Vineyard.
