The 2016 presidential primary season continues to be predictably unpredictable, with outsiders leading polls and seasoned political veterans lagging behind. Every time Donald Trump says something offensive, it seems like it will finally be the statement that brings him down. But Trump continues to poll like a front-runner nationally, in Iowa and in New Hampshire.
But just because the last several months have mostly held steady doesn’t mean we should expect the candidates in the lead today to win caucuses and primaries. Most voters probably still haven’t made a final decision on whom they will support. Let’s review who led primary polls on Nov. 25, 2011, 2007 and 2003.
2011, Republican national polls: Following the demise of Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich had just taken the lead from Mitt Romney, who was two percentage points behind. Gingrich would hold that lead for the rest of the year. He lost the lead in early January, but would briefly regain it at the end of the month. Gingrich won primaries in South Carolina and his home state of Georgia.
2011, Iowa Republican Caucus: Gingrich also led in polls of Republicans in Iowa on this day in 2011. He held a two-point lead over Herman Cain, whose campaign was collapsing, and a four point lead over Romney. Eventual caucus winner Rick Santorum was still polling under 4 percent. Keep in mind, the caucus was scheduled a month earlier in 2012 than it will be in 2016.
2011, New Hampshire Republican Primary: Sometimes the early polls get it right. Mitt Romney polled at 37 percent on this day in 2011, nearly 20 points ahead of Gingrich in second place. Romney went on to win with 39 percent of the vote, 16 points higher than second-place Ron Paul.
2007, Republican national polls: Rudy Giuliani led polls by 13 percentage points. He didn’t lose the lead until early January, and he went on to win zero primaries or caucuses. On Nov. 25, 2007, eventual-nominee John McCain was in fourth with 12 percent of the vote.
2007, Iowa Republican Caucus: Mitt Romney had a seven point lead over second-place Mike Huckabee. Huckabee went on to win with 35 percent to Romney’s 25 percent.
2007, New Hampshire Republican Primary: Romney again held an early lead, by 15 points over Giuliani. John McCain sat in third place with 16 percent support, but would go on to win with more than double that amount. Romney finished in second, 5.5 points behind.
2007, Democratic national polls: Hillary Clinton led by 20 points. She held the lead for more than two more months before succumbing to Barack Obama.
2007, Iowa Democratic Caucus: Clinton held a narrow two-point lead over Obama. He would surge to win by eight points over Clinton.
2007, New Hampshire Democratic Primary: Again, sometimes the early polls get it right. Clinton held a 13 point lead on this day in 2007. The final polls actually predicted an eight point win for Obama, but Clinton won by 2.6 points. That shows polls can be wrong even within a week of Election Day.
2003, Democratic national polls: Howard Dean and Wesley Clark were tied for the lead. Each candidate would win only one state, while John Kerry would carry 46.
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Only two of the candidates leading the polls on Nov. 25 in the 10 contests mentioned above went on to win. Two out of 10 is not a great track record of prediction.
This isn’t to say that a candidate should prefer to sit in second or third place instead of first at the moment. It’s more accurate to argue that the types of candidates that lead the polls in late November don’t typically go on to win the nomination.
Historically, a candidate’s endorsements give a better picture of who has the best shot to win the nomination. FiveThirtyEight created a rudimentary system to measure the importance of an endorsement, assigning one, five, and ten points to endorsements from members of the House of Representatives, senators and governors, respectively.
Using that system, Jeb Bush is leading the field with 41 endorsement points. Marco Rubio trails with 29, Chris Christie has 25 and Mike Huckabee has 24. Despite their high poll numbers, Trump and Ben Carson have no endorsements from sitting members of the House of Representatives, senators or governors. But most of the major Republican endorsers are still sitting on the sidelines. There are almost 800 endorsement points to go around, and fewer than one quarter of them are committed. That could make for a tumultuous few months to come.
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By contrast, there are fewer than 600 Democratic endorsement points, and about three-quarter of them are already committed to Clinton. She has 447 endorsement points, while Bernie Sanders has two and Martin O’Malley has one.
Still, even this measure of endorsements has its flaws. For example, in 2008 Hillary Clinton led Obama in the endorsement primary for most of the campaign, with Obama’s endorsement points not surpassing Clinton until the campaign’s closing weeks.
As you try to predict what will happen in the primary season to come, remember one rule: Expect the unexpected.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
