Political pundits were having a field day yesterday with Mitt Romney’s eight-vote victory over Rick Santorum in Tuesday’s Iowa Republican caucuses. In 2008, Romney spent millions of dollars and weeks of time in Iowa, with 52 paid professional staff members, but lost to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. This time around, Romney won despite having only five staff members in Iowa and campaigning there for barely more than a week. Santorum’s last-minute surge from obscurity to a near win sparked great headlines and enthusiasm among the candidate and his backers. But exit poll data suggests the celebration could be short-lived. According to Fox News, 65 percent of caucusgoers who said they made up their minds on the day of the event went with Santorum. That fact can certainly be spun as evidence that the Santorum can convert undecided voters into supporters.
But it seems to us the more likely explanation is that Santorum benefitted from a host of last-minute decisions by Republican voters whose backing is apt to be extremely shallow, especially after the inevitable roughing-up that he is about to experience as the latest Romney challenger. Timing also helped. Santorum was the fifth “anti-Romney” but the only one whose surge of support came just before Iowa GOPers headed to their caucus meetings. In a sense then, Santorum is the least examined of the candidate in the field, which lends a tenuous air to his position heading into next week’s New Hampshire primary.
As for third-place finisher Ron Paul, the potency of his economic and social libertarianism and 1930-ish isolationism should not be underestimated. As former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said Tuesday, many Americans are “war-weary” and the country is in dire financial straits. Agree with Paul or not, it would be a great irony if he gains more success in 2012 with a “Come Home, America” message than did the man who coined that phrase in 1972, Democrat George McGovern.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s fourth-place finish in Iowa leaves him just viable enough to justify going ahead to New Hampshire and then South Carolina and perhaps even Florida. What will damage his future prospects more than anything, however, are more eruptions of personal pique such as his all-but-calling Romney a liar and pettily refusing to congratulate him on his Iowa victory.
Finally, there are Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. The former spent millions in Iowa only to finish fifth. Despite that setback, he’s determined to stay in the race at least until South Carolina. If Gingrich continues to fade, Perry may yet get a second look. Having effectively put all of his eggs in one New England basket, Huntsman needs to finish a close second or third in New Hampshire, or face calls for his withdrawal.
