If you thought the NFL season already had some great matchups, wait until you see the possible NFC and AFC Championship previews coming in week three. Here are three games you can’t miss, along with my picks to win.
Last week’s picks did well, going 3-0 against the spread and 2-1 straight up. Overall this season, I’m 5-1 both straight up and against the spread.
Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0), 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Each of these teams had highly entertaining games last week as the Cowboys pulled off a miraculous comeback to beat the Falcons and the Seahawks beat the Patriots.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, no team since 1933 had lost a game when scoring 39 points and not committing a turnover — until last Sunday. Teams that had checked off those two boxes over the last 87 years were 440-0. They are now 440-1. In my mind, that says more about the Atlanta Falcons and their incompetence than it does about the Cowboys, and that’s important. That was an emotional roller-coaster of a game for Dallas. Now, the team has to head out to the Pacific Northwest to take on a fantastic Seahawks team that smoked the Falcons in Week 1.
Dak Prescott literally had a historic day against Atlanta, because no quarterback in NFL history had ever thrown for over 400 yards and run for three scores in a game before. Once again, Prescott’s three-headed monster of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup will need to get separation and create plays in space. Look for Prescott to air it out against a Seahawks secondary that surrendered over 400 passing yards to Matt Ryan and nearly 400 to Cam Newton.
Ezekiel Elliott is an elite running back and got 28 touches last week. I expect to see something similar again this week. He has the ability to create big plays running the ball or catching it out of the backfield. The Seahawks managed to hold the Patriots to just 2.7 yards per carry last week. Can Bobby Wagner and the linebacking corps wrap Elliott up? His longest run and his longest catch last week were both 11 yards. The Seahawks will have to keep him contained.
Seattle was balanced offensively last week, running the ball 30 times and throwing it 28 times. Russell Wilson had another massive game last week, going 21-for-28 with five passing touchdowns. He also picked up nearly 8 yards every time he decided to run. ESPN’s Todd Archer says Cowboys starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie will be out for multiple weeks with a hamstring injury while Trevon Diggs has a shoulder injury and might not play. That’s a really bad problem to have when Wilson is in a zone like he’s in right now.
While the Seahawks won a tense game last week, I’m quite worried about the Cowboys. I think they might be mentally and emotionally spent from last week’s whirlwind win.
The line: Seattle Seahawks (-5.0)
The pick: The weaknesses in the Cowboys secondary and the potential for a letdown after last week’s miraculous comeback make me think this could be a two-score game. I’m taking the Seahawks to win and cover.
Green Bay Packers (2-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-1), 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
The Packers are coming off of solid wins against two NFC North opponents in the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, while the Saints are reeling from a Monday night loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
I think the key matchup in this game will be the running backs.
Alvin Kamara had a monster game against the Raiders on Monday. He averaged over 6 yards per carry and had a couple of rushing scores. He also caught nine passes for 95 yards. He’s currently leading the Saints in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards, and is tied for the lead in touchdown catches. He’s averaging over 10 yards per catch and is an explosive player who can single-handedly win a game.
Aaron Jones is averaging nearly 7 yards per carry and 117 rushing yards per game while averaging nearly 10 yards per catch. He doesn’t lead the team in receiving statistics because he’s teammates with the nearly-impossible-to-defend Davante Adams. Adams will see a bevy of targets on Sunday, but Jones will continue to get a lot of carries and passes thrown his way.
The Saints have one of the best cornerback tandems in football but will be tested this week. Derek Carr was able to pick apart the Saints on Monday, so I fully believe that Aaron Rodgers is capable of delivering a great performance. His ability to extend plays and pick up first downs with his legs is another facet of what makes him so dangerous.
While Drew Brees hasn’t gotten off to a fast start this season, Rodgers has the look of a man who’s out to prove all of his doubters wrong. In his first two games, he has thrown six touchdowns with no interceptions and is averaging over 300 passing yards per game at a 67.6% clip.
Brees and the Saints are still a good team offensively, but the potential absence of Michael Thomas worries me. The Packers’ team doctor is renowned surgeon Dr. Robert Anderson. Thomas will go up to Green Bay to visit with Anderson to see if he can play this week. That puts the doctor in the position of signing off on whether or not Thomas is able to go this week. I fully believe the doctor will do what is in the best interest of his patient, but I don’t know if Thomas will get cleared, be effective, and not get hurt again.
The line: New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
The pick: I really like the way that the Packers are playing, and they have the advantage of the extra day of rest since New Orleans played on Monday night. I’m taking the points and the Pack to win as road dogs.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0), 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
The Chiefs and Ravens, who might be the two best teams in football, face off on Monday Night Football. There are so many good matchups in this game:
- Patrick Mahomes against Lamar Jackson
- Travis Kelce against Mark Andrews
- The Chiefs running game against the Ravens running game
Last season, Mahomes torched Baltimore for 374 yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs scored 23 unanswered points in the second quarter and held on to win at home 33-28. The Chiefs were battling injuries, and the Ravens missed multiple opportunities, so it’s definitely not an exact rematch, but Lamar Jackson is much better and more confident in his abilities than he was when these teams faced off over a year ago.
They’re in Baltimore this year, and the Ravens have looked impressive in dispatching the lowly Browns and DeAndre Hopkins-less Texans. The Chiefs defeated Houston in Week 1 and then needed overtime to beat a Los Angeles Chargers squad led by backup quarterback Justin Herbert.
I expect the Ravens to lean on the run game to try to control the clock and keep Mahomes and the Chiefs’ juggernaut offense off the field in the process.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is unquestionably the top runner in the Chiefs offense, even though Mahomes is incredibly dangerous when he pulls it down and takes off. But the Ravens have utilized Jackson and three running backs. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have had success early in the season, along with a steady Mark Ingram II. It’ll be interesting to see how the team opts to defend them.
Both of these defenses are very good, but I’ll give a slight edge to the Ravens. Red zone offense and defense will be critical. With the potential for a high-scoring affair, you need touchdowns instead of field goals when you get a chance to punch it in.
With that being said, an underrated X-factor in this game will be the kickers. Justin Tucker might be the most clutch kicker on the planet, and Harrison Butker drilled two 58-yard field goals last week, including the game-winner in overtime.
The line: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
The pick: I usually make a point never to bet against Mahomes, but I’m going to break my rule this week and hope that I don’t pay the price. I’m taking the Ravens to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington.
