One reason — a secondary reason, perhaps, but not an insignificant one — why Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, whose 64 electoral votes were carried by Barack Obama in 2012, was a decline in turnout and Democratic percentage in their major central cities.
The primary reason, as I argued in my Washington Examiner column last week, was the collapse in these states of the Democratic percentage in most counties outside their million-plus metro areas.
But if central-city turnout and Democratic percentage had been at 2012 levels, Clinton would have carried Michigan and Wisconsin and have made President-elect Trump’s margin significantly smaller in Pennsylvania.
The numbers are set out in the table in Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball mea culpa analysis of the results. Let’s look at each state.
Pennsylvania: In Philadelphia County, coterminous with the city of Philadelphia, the Republican percentage rose 1.5 percent and the Democratic percentage was down 3 percent. The Democratic popular vote margin was reduced from 492,000 to 457,000 (numbers rounded off for clarity).
These three maps tweeted by @PatrickRuffini make it clear that turnout was down in heavily black parts of Philadelphia and up in areas where blacks are a small percentage of the population.
Turnout and Democratic percentage improved in upscale Chestnut Hill and gentrified Center City, but there were turnout increases and lower Democratic percentages in mostly white South Philadelphia, Fishtown and Northeast Philadelphia.
Ohio: In Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, turnout was down 9 percent, Republican percentage was up 1 percent and Democratic percentage down 4.2 percent. The Democratic margin fell from 257,000 to 206,000.
That suggests that turnout was down sharply in heavily black precincts in the east side of Cleveland and in the heavily black east, northeast and southeast Cleveland suburbs. Remember that there are relatively few African-Americans on the west side of Cleveland and the western and southern suburbs.
Michigan: In Detroit’s Wayne County, turnout was down 5 percent, Republican percentage up 3.2 percent and Democratic percentage down 6.5 percent. On election night, commentators noted that early returns showed the county going far from overwhelmingly Democratic, and I speculated that early returns were mostly from the county’s largely white western suburbs.
In recent years, Livonia, Plymouth and Northville have been voting Republican in many elections. Remember that in the 2010 Census, the fast-population-losing city of Detroit accounted for only 39 percent of the county’s population.
Many middle-class African-Americans have moved to Southfield, Farmington and West Bloomfield in Oakland County, where the Republican percentage declined 1.8 percent and the Democratic percentage 1.7 percent — quite a different result from Wayne County.
Wisconsin: In Milwaukee County, which includes numerous suburbs as well as the city of Milwaukee, turnout was down 11 percent, Republican percentage down 2.9 percent and Democratic percentage down 0.3 percent. The Democratic margin declined from 178,000 to 163,000.
The decline in Republican percentage is in line with similar declines in the almost entirely white “WOW” ring of suburban counties — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington.
Conclusion: Black turnout was lower in these counties partly for the same reasons it was elsewhere — less enthusiasm for Clinton than for the first black president. But it’s also worth noting that black voters have moved out of Philadelphia, Cuyahoga, Wayne and Milwaukee Counties
In some cases, they moved to adjacent suburbs — Delaware County, Pa., and Oakland County, Mich., and other counties in smaller numbers — but also for Southern metro areas like Atlanta, Dallas and Houston.
That helps account for increased Democratic percentages in those metro areas and gives Democrats hope that they can some day carry Georgia or Texas.
But it also means that they can’t necessarily continue to count on the big majorities from black voters they used to get in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — three of which were part of the “blue wall” of supposedly solid Democratic states Republicans could never hope to carry again because until 2016, they hadn’t carried them since the 1980s.
To carry those states, Democrats will have to find other sources of votes. By the way, all these states and counties have minimal Hispanic and Asian populations, so Democrats will have to make gains among whites to win.
The blue wall has fallen, and part of the reason is that black voters are moving to red states.
