Republicans are courting disaster in the Missouri Senate race as they can’t line up behind one candidate to keep disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens from winning the GOP nomination.
The Senate Conservatives Fund recently threw its support behind Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who has also been endorsed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Meanwhile, Rep. Vicky Hartzler has the support of Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley and several conservative groups. Hartzler has been gaining in the polls and leads a recent Trafalgar survey, but she and Schmitt are each hovering just above 20% support.
Greitens, the former governor who resigned in disgrace after an extramarital affair led to scandalous accusations that left Missouri Republicans considering his impeachment, has been the front-runner in this race. Now, Greitens is facing a new set of domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife. His lead has slipped in the primary, but he is polling even with Hartzler and Schmitt.
The best-case scenario would be that Greitens continues to fade as it becomes clearer to Republicans in the state that he is a liability in the general election — indeed, that he represents their only chance of losing. But 23% of Republicans in the state don’t believe the latest accusations, according to a recent poll — roughly the same level of support that Greitens has now. That would suggest that he has a base of support that isn’t just going to evaporate between now and the August primary election.
There will be no runoff after the August primary election either, meaning that a divided field is the best thing for Greitens and the Democratic Party and the worst thing for everyone else. If Hartzler and Schmitt both stay in the race and neither begins to pull ahead, Greitens has a shot at clinching the nomination and turning a safe GOP seat into a competitive one.
Even in a favorable national environment, Republicans are dealing with a mixed Senate map. A Greitens nomination would be catastrophic to the party’s chances of retaking the upper chamber, as more time and resources would need to be spent on an election that would be a cakewalk for either Hartzler or Schmitt. Republicans can’t afford a repeat of the debacle in Alabama in 2017. The party needs to line up behind one of the two alternatives to Greitens — and the sooner, the better.
