If the government does shut down at 12.01 a.m. Saturday, do not fear. Necessary government services will continue – although some national security roles will be suspended – and because we are not a socialist kleptocracy, the lights will stay on.
Even then, this is likely to be a very short shutdown.
First off, the key obstacle to a deal to keep the government running is partisan posturing, and not anything policy-related. As attested by the screeching faux outrage of Democrats and their poster child, Jimmy Kimmel, the Left sees this shutdown as an easy opportunity for election year voter mobilization and donor fundraising. Put simply, Democrats know their base is now at a stage of mouth-frothing fury when it comes to President Trump and Republicans.
And how does a politician take advantage of this fury? By focusing the base around a prospective injustice by Republicans. In this case, the Republican effort to tie acceptance of a Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program deal to other GOP priorities such as military spending and the border wall.
Behind the scenes, Democrats on Capitol Hill know that the president and congressional Republicans are being quite reasonable.
After all, where Trump ardently opposed DACA on the campaign trail, he is now open to its perpetual retention in return for a few billion for his border wall. Moreover, in the context of North Korea’s rising threat and the possibility of new conflagrations with China, Iran, and Russia, Democrats know they are playing a dangerous game in risking the appearance of holding military spending hostage. Trump knows this as well, which is why his Twitter feed is full of ominous warnings about a shutdown’s impact on military readiness.
As I say, Democrats are aware that it’s in their interest to cut a deal. And they’re also aware that while there is political opportunity in a short-term showdown with Trump, the risks of allowing DACA and the Children’s Health Insurance Program to lapse, are profound. Those priorities are emotionally vested policies for the liberal base true believers: those who knock on doors and rally the troops into the voting booths.
And so we’re heading for a short shutdown. That option is the only one which gives Democrats the best of both worlds: the opportunity to rail against Trump without the risk of policy failures that would reverberate into November’s midterms.
