Last week, I wrote about my Final Four picks as well as some sleepers and teams to avoid.
Almost every team left in the field has looked vulnerable at some point, but my confidence in my Final Four picks remain unshaken. Allow me to explain why I think they’ll advance to the regional finals with a chance to make it to Minneapolis:
Duke — Was Duke lucky to escape with a win against UCF? Definitely. Does that change my mind about picking them to advance to the Elite Eight and continue their quest for a national title? Absolutely not.
The Blue Devils still have three potential lottery picks playing for them, including Zion Williamson, the likely No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft. For those who note that Virginia Tech beat Duke earlier this season, that’s true. However, Zion Williamson didn’t play in that game because of an injury. He appears to be quite healthy and dropped 32 points on UCF to go with his 11 rebounds and four assists.
Duke has traditionally been a team that lives and dies by the three. Virginia Tech is one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams. Duke will get its points in the paint as well as in transition. This team is still arguably the most talented one in the country. A lot would have to go wrong for Duke and a lot would have to go right for Virginia Tech for the Hokies to pull off the upset. Making it even more difficult for Virginia Tech is the fact that these two teams know each other and their personnel so well. It’s not the same as getting a day or two to prepare for a team you’ve never seen before.
Remember, Loyola-Chicago needed a buzzer-beater to beat Miami in the first round and Michigan needed a buzzer-beater to beat Houston to get into the Sweet 16. Both made the Final Four and Michigan made it to the national title game.
Duke should win by a comfortable margin.
North Carolina — Auburn is very good at forcing turnovers. Just how good are the Tigers at forcing opposing teams to cough up the ball? They force turnovers on 25 percent of opponents’ possessions! That being said, I still think UNC will advance.
Why? Because it’s a disciplined team with a lot of talent. The Tar Heels hustle, they rebound the ball very well, they play fast and, oh yeah, that part about them having a lot of talent.
Nassir Little scored 19 points in 17 minutes against Iona in the first round and then scored 20 points in 21 minutes in a blowout win over Washington. He’s getting hot off the bench, and Luke Maye, who helped lead the Tar Heels to the national title in 2017, is still getting his with 16 points and 9 boards against Iona and 20 and 14 against the Huskies.
Auburn nearly lost to New Mexico State before running Kansas out of the building to reach the Sweet 16. The Tigers can’t be inconsistent against UNC and hope to survive.
Whom do you trust more to coach a team to a win in a Sweet 16 game: Roy Williams, a coach with three national championships and countless wins in big games, or Bruce Pearl? That’s what I thought.
Michigan — The Wolverines held their first two opponents, Montana and Florida, to 55 and 49 points, respectively. They are ridiculously good defensively. That will be very important because the team they’re playing in the Sweet 16, Texas Tech, is just as good on defense. The Red Raiders held Northern Kentucky to 57 points and Buffalo to 58.
According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has the most efficient defense in the country. It also has the best player on the floor in Jarrett Culver.
The Red Raiders have the third-best scoring defense in Division I, allowing just 59.2 points per game. Care to guess who has the second-best scoring defense in Division I? That would be the men wearing the maize and blue. The Wolverines are only allowing a paltry 58.2 points per game.
In a matchup of two fantastic defensive teams, I’ll take the one with the more balanced offense. In this case, that happens to be Michigan.
Michigan made a run to the national title game last year. The Wolverines will have to be better from three-point range if they want to beat Texas Tech, but they have the talent and the know-how to step up and win big games like this.
Virginia — Advancing to the Sweet 16 must have been an incredible weight off the shoulders of the Cavaliers.
Virginia has the nation’s top-scoring defense, allowing just 55 points per game. That will come in handy against one of the hottest teams in the country in 12th-seeded Oregon. The Ducks have a top-15 scoring defense and have won 10 in a row, blowing out Wisconsin and UC Irvine on their path to the Sweet 16.
Oregon loves to play in space, but I believe Virginia will slow it to a crawl and flummox it with its pack-line defense.
Another reason I think Virginia will win this game isn’t just its defense, but its offense. Kyle Guy, the team’s leading scorer, was 2-for-15 from the field against Oklahoma. UVA still won by 12 and managed to hold the Sooners to just 51 points. In any other year, Virginia’s top scorer going 2-for-15 would have probably spelled certain doom for the Cavaliers.
This year seems different. This UVA squad is a complete team with a chip on its back. It won’t let Oregon get in the way of its quest for redemption and its chance to exorcise the demons of last year’s humiliating defeat at the hands of UMBC.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
