Pragmatic engagement with Russia is possible, but only from a position of strength. And only where genuine shared interests are served by engagement.
In 2021, I can see only two shared interests between Russia and the United States: action on climate change and new efforts to limit the number of deployed nuclear warheads. Neither nation, after all, has an interest in annihilation.
Unfortunately, from President Joe Biden on down, the administration is giving Russian officials the benefit of the doubt in diplomacy. Biden’s strategy: talk, talk, talk. In the latest dialogue adventure, CIA Director Bill Burns was in Moscow on Tuesday, meeting Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s security chief, Nikolai Patrushev. Put simply, Burns should not be communicating to Patrushev with words.
Regardless, it’s the tip of the verbosity iceberg.
The New York Times painted this effort with a rather rosy tint last weekend, reporting that the Biden administration had given Moscow the names of Russia-based hackers that the U.S. would like to see arrested in relation to ransomware attacks — the idea being that this will test Russia’s seriousness in its offer to cooperate on cybercriminality.
The gambit will fail.
The evidence is clear: Major ransomware syndicates in Russia are operating with the approval and awareness of the state. This is not, as some people suggest, a debatable point. When Russian cybersecurity entrepreneurs raise this concern, they are charged with treason. Yes, you read that right. Those who condemn the state’s cozy relationship with international cybercriminals are charged with treason.
But now, after months of Biden’s prevarication over whether the hackers are acting with state authority, the Russians are doing what they always do when they sense weakness: escalating. Just last month, Evil Corp, a ransomware group that the U.S. government has openly assessed as a part-time deniable actor for the Kremlin, attacked a major American telecommunications firm. Evil Corp’s erstwhile leader is Maksim Yakubets. He remains free, gallivanting around Russia in flashy cars.
Unfortunately, Biden’s “please arrest Yakubets” cyber-silliness strategy is just the tip of the iceberg.
The Biden administration truly seems to believe that Russia has some interest in cooling tensions and finding compromises. That the Russians are playing games with Washington should be obvious to Biden’s team for two reasons. First, because of the distinction between what Putin’s government is saying and what it is actually doing. Second, because of the nature of Putin’s government.
Let’s take the second point first. Put simply, Putin’s regime is not structured in the same way that most governments are structured. Indeed, it is not even structured in the same way that most autocratic governments are structured. Instead, it is built around and sustained by simultaneous networks of privilege and ideology.
The ideology side of the coin is shaped by Putin and Nikolai Patrushev. An extension of both men’s KGB service, it centers on a desire to reestablish Moscow’s political dominance and economic feudalism over periphery states from the Baltics to Belarus to Ukraine to Georgia. The ideology also inculcates a deep hatred for the U.S. that is at once personal and political. The U.S. remains the “main enemy.”
The privilege side involves the theft of state funds, the expropriation of private capital, and the taxing of criminal enterprises. This allows government officials of rank to get very rich. It also funds a privilege system in which loyal, lower-ranking officials (especially in the security services, what Russia calls the “special services”) benefit from their loyalty and success outside of formal structures.
Understanding this double-sided nature of Putin’s regime helps us understand Russia’s words-action distinction. It helps us understand why, for example, Russia pledges to support European energy security, but once again is using energy supplies as a weapon as winter approaches. It explains why Russia claims to seek ransomware cooperation but keeps the criminals free and rich — and promotes their handlers. It explains why Putin claims to seek multilateral stability but directly supports the key adversary of international order. It explains why Patrushev’s hand lurks close whenever Americans are harmed.
Team Biden is making the same grievous mistake that many of them made under the Obama administration. They’re seeking a Russian reset, while Putin seeks revanchism.
