Infuriated by the loss of more than 150 of their fellow citizens in Tuesday’s explosion, Lebanese protesters have taken to the streets of Beirut. Clashes with security forces are ongoing, and tensions are very likely to rise over the coming days.
Politicians are calling for national unity, and the international community is providing humanitarian relief. Still, the risk of a new Lebanese civil war is growing.
The first challenge is a near-absolute loss of trust in the political establishment. Despised for their corruption and use of government ministries as one big spoils system, the political establishment was under pressure even before Tuesday’s explosion in Beirut. Economic suffering is the central gripe of protesters here. Lebanon’s economy is imploding under the weight of its rigid state-centric character and monopoly enterprises. The government had figuratively and literally papered over these difficulties in recent years with artificial currency maneuvers and the provision of financial services to Syria. But recently introduced U.S. sanctions have closed off that Syria input valve, and the currency gaming has finally caught up with reality. Protesters know the remedy: wholesale political reform that allows for a truly democratic government. The sectarian spoils system must end, and a new “national pact” agreed. Those elected to the position of president, prime minister, and parliamentary speaker must earn those positions by votes rather than their sectarian stripes.
Will reform occur?
Well, while Prime Minister Hassan Diab is pushing for early elections, it’s not at all clear whether he and President Michel Aoun are serious about reform. Diab is widely regarded as a puppet of the Hezbollah Free Patriotic Movement-Amal governing alliance. At the same time, Aoun is a geriatric with little appetite for bold reform. Parliament speaker Nabih Berri of Amal and Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah will be adamant against any serious reform. After all, they benefit most from the current system.
The key, then, is for Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic Movement to accept some serious reform, perhaps under the tutelage of its younger leader, Gebran Bassil, it could join with the opposition bloc parties, Future, Lebanese Forces, and the Progressive Socialist Party, to enact reform. Sadly, Bassil doesn’t yet appear ready to shift the equation. With telling absurdity, Bassil told CNN on Friday that he has no responsibility for the crisis. Aoun has also ruled out an international investigation into the explosion, saying, “The goal behind calls for an international investigation into the port issue is to dilute the truth.”
Much now depends on France and the United States. Leading the international response to the explosion, Presidents Trump and Emmanuel Macron must be clear. Humanitarian aid should be delivered immediately, but broader aid of the kind needed to rescue Lebanon from its economic crisis must be contingent on reform. That’s the only way Lebanon will be able to start escaping its political, economic, and humanitarian nightmare. Absent that, people will keep taking to the streets. There’s a growing likelihood that serious violence will at some point erupt, and a civil war will follow.
