After the so-called “blue wave” of Democratic victories in the 2018 midterm election, the grassroots of both parties looked to the 2019 off-year as a testing ground for the 2020 presidential cycles. With only four states in play and sporadic special elections, 2019’s small skirmishes were hailed as indicators for how the Republican Party would fare in 2020.
The result? Well, predictions of another blue wave in 2020 have been tempered by a steady GOP wave in 2019 that signals bad news for Democrats as congressional redistricting kicks off.
The first major skirmish took place in Minnesota’s 11th state Senate District, which had long been in Democratic hands. In 2016, the incumbent Democrat rolled over the Republican nominee 54.5% to 45%. Then, in 2019, Republican Jason Rarick flipped the script, winning 52% to 46%.
Later that month, the bright blue state of Connecticut held five special elections, in which Republicans successfully flipped two recently vacated Democratic seats. Meanwhile, in early March, Republicans secured Kentucky’s 31st Senate District by four points, a seat which appeared so safe for Democrats that the Republicans did not even bother putting up a challenger in 2016. In North Carolina, meanwhile, a bloodied and scandal-ridden GOP managed to narrowly eke out a win for Dan Bishop in the 9th Congressional District.
In the small town of Epping, New Hampshire, Republican Michael Vose bested Democrat Naomi Andrews by under 100 votes in a true swing district. Even with endorsements from multiple presidential candidates and a massive fundraising advantage, the Democrats simply could not gain the upper hand.
While 2019 has generally favored Republicans more than 2018, the narrative of the midterm elections’s supposed blue wave was always somewhat misleading in the first place. In the 105 state legislative races that were decided by 100 votes or less, Republicans won 54 races compared to the Democrats 51. So it’s perhaps not too surprising to see the GOP doing better so far in 2019.
In Louisiana, the first state to have regular general elections this year, the GOP has secured a supermajority in the state Senate and is in striking distance of a supermajority in the state House once the dust settles in the runoff. Popular Democrat incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards is now in grave danger of losing against a unified Republican front in November as well.
The 2016 election cycle marked a dramatic shift in party alignment across the country, as evidenced by 2018 and 2019. While Democratic gains in the suburbs have proven flashy and garnered much ink in the press, it seems that many pundits on both sides of the aisle are suffering from political amnesia. After all, in 2016 President Trump flipped Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, carried Iowa, Ohio, and Indiana, and came much closer than any recent GOP nominee in Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
The ensuing elections have followed a well-reported pattern: Republicans have lost ground in the suburbs, but they are gaining substantial ground in the small towns that dot the American landscape. While the broad strokes are well reported, the nuances have been completely neglected, to paint a picture of a sweeping blue wave that will wipe away Republican prospects in 2020.
In reality, the blue wave has been counteracted by a reliable red spread in districts across the country. Rural voter turnout is going up, old union voters who saw their medium-sized cities become ghost towns are switching parties, and the Blue Dog Democrats in the South and the Midwest are becoming reliable Republican voters.
And considering the types of seats the GOP is winning, the Republican wave has arguably been more monumental than the blue wave. Seats where in years prior the Republicans did not even bother fielding a candidate are being flipped, while Democratic gains in the suburbs are mostly in traditionally competitive swing seats. Historically, the midterm elections typically favor the party that is not in the White House, yet this was trumpeted as a historic turnaround.
In reality, Republican politicos and office-seekers should be excited by the gradual GOP momentum that’s been growing underneath the pundits’ noses. Democrats, meanwhile, ought to be alarmed.
Barrett Young is the director of grassroots at Young Americans for Liberty.
