Whoever wins the Israeli election on Tuesday, the relationship between our two nations will remain close and strong.
There are two potential winners: a coalition led by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, or a Blue-White coalition led by Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid.
While Netanyahu’s close relationship with President Trump might suggest smooth sailing in the event of his reelection, it’s more complicated than that. Although Netanyahu has offered the U.S. strong support in intelligence efforts against Iran and other adversarial groups such as the Islamic State, he has also posed problems.
For a start, the prime minister has taken steps that would seem to mean Trump’s upcoming Israeli-Palestinian peace plan will be dead on arrival. Netanyahu has ruled out making major concessions to the Palestinian Authority, and has sought support from far-right parties that despise the Palestinian people. Just last weekend, Netanyahu pledged more aggressive settlement construction in the West Bank. Netanyahu has also cultivated increasingly close technology links with China. Considering Israeli possession of boutique technologies and U.S. military equipment, this endangers U.S. interests.
Facing indictment on multiple corruption charges, Netanyahu would also be reluctant to alienate future coalition Cabinet members who could control his legal fate. That means Netanyahu is unlikely to push a future Cabinet to make concessions to Trump if the Cabinet opposes him. In turn, Trump will have to wield the U.S. diplomatic stick.
How about Gantz-Lapid?
Led by Israel’s former military chief Gantz and the centrist former television host Lapid, the Blue-White coalition offers a more moderate platform compared to Netanyahu. While they would be more predisposed to Trump’s peace plan, they might also push back against the Trump administration’s policy in other areas, such as on Iran and Syria. But it’s hard to know. Neither man has held marquee political posts in government and thus both are unpredictable leaders.
Israel’s parliamentary system means it’s hard to predict what final coalition government might be formed once the votes are counted. Still, this is a positive moral moment. The Middle East’s only flourishing democracy is once again proving its durability and its values.
