Iran’s top subordinate ally in Iraq faces a growing crisis. As it now escalates in an effort to retain its power, Kata’ib Hezbollah faces a new prime minister who would see it corralled.
Although little noticed outside its borders, what’s happening in Iraq is potentially revolutionary. Having operated with impunity over the 17 years since its founding, Kata’ib Hezbollah now confronts a prime minister who is determined to restrain its aggression and its undermining of Iraqi democracy. Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi, former head of Iraq’s National Intelligence Service, is an Iraqi patriot, unlike previous prime ministers who put sectarian politics before the national interest. And that’s posing a big problem for Iran and Kata’ib Hezbollah.
Sectarian wrangling has long been the pivot on which Iran’s hardliners faction centers its Iraq policy. And in recent years, these efforts have been greatly advanced under the tutelage of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. Constructed around political-military-militia networks of patronage and intimidation, Soleimani and his colleagues exploited Iraq’s internal divisions to advance Iran’s interest in a supplicant Shia puppet state. But then, along came a drone.
Since the January U.S. airstrike that killed Soleimani and Kata’ib Hezbollah’s top leader, Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, the organization has come under unprecedented pressure. Aware that Kata’ib Hezbollah ultimately serves Iranian imperial ambitions far more than it does any kind of national effort against ISIS, Kadhimi has isolated the group and its allies within the government’s security apparatus. Kadhimi is determined that his government be the unquestioned master of coercive power in Iraq. This reflects the prime minister’s desire that his nation not fall into the same trap that the Lebanese Hezbollah so successfully laid in Beirut — an offer of a relative peace in return for space to entrench itself within the state’s power structure.
Tensions are escalating. Following Kata’ib Hezbollah attack plots uncovered in June, the prime minister ordered a special forces raid against the group’s headquarters. More than a dozen fighters were detained. Although they were quickly released, the confrontation sent a needed message that the state will not tolerate insurrectionist-minded militias.
Kata’ib Hezbollah hasn’t been silent in response. Its fighters gunned down a counter-terrorism expert in a brazen street attack earlier this month. The group is also threatening new attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, one of its usual activities. To counter these efforts, Kadhimi will have to stand firm and find continued support from the United States and the European Union. In a fortunate development, new Saudi investments in Iraq may beckon as the regionally and very anti-Iran-minded crown prince Mohammed bin Salman takes on more power — his father, King Salman, is about to die.
Still, for Iraqis and those who have died since 2003 to give this ancient nation a new chance at multi-sectarian democracy, Kadhimi’s positive-nationalist leadership should be welcomed. It represents a tangible cause for new hope.
