The European Union is an immensely wealthy bloc of democracies. Its members have the means and, via Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine, the motive to provide more for their own defense.
The United States should support the defense of its European allies, especially in the areas of ground combat, intelligence, and nuclear forces. Yet, amid dramatically escalating threats of war with China, the U.S. must prioritize the deployment of its naval and air forces to the Pacific. Recently basing two additional Navy destroyers in Europe, President Joe Biden has undermined this strategic necessity so as to consolidate European allies against Russia. Biden should have demanded the Europeans to invest in their own navies.
On Wednesday, Europe rewarded the president’s commitment with a truly pathetic betrayal.
The EU’s executive body, the European Commission, announced that Lithuania must allow sanctioned Russian goods to transit between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Russia proper. Sandwiched between Poland, Lithuania, and the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad has suffered escalating economic and energy challenges over Lithuania’s enforcement of the EU’s sanctions that were introduced following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Those sanctions prohibited the use of EU territory for the passage of restricted Russian goods. On Wednesday, however, the European Commission invented the notion that its sanctions did not apply to Russian rail transports between the Russian mainland and Kaliningrad. Considering that rail is the major route for Russian supplies to Kaliningrad, the concession addresses Moscow’s complaints. Vladimir Putin’s government had threatened severe consequences if the EU did not give in. Obviously under immense pressure and needing the EU’s support (as yet undelivered) over its trade war with China, Lithuania says it will abide by the EU’s judgment. Britain, the U.S., Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia had sought to maintain the Kaliningrad sanctions. It wasn’t as if the sanctions were a trade embargo: Russia could have used the Baltic Sea to provide transits if it wanted — either that or Putin could end his war of destiny against Ukraine.
As Reuters notes, Germany was the key architect of the European Commission’s appeasement. We should have seen it coming.
European Commission president and former German Defense Secretary Ursula von der Leyen is the protege of Putin’s favorite European puppet, Angela Merkel (to be fair to von der Leyen, her EU Council President counterpart Charles Michel is equally weak). Nevertheless, in a pitch-perfect example of EU doublespeak, the commission said it “underlines the importance of monitoring” rail transits to prevent Russian smuggling. Of course, the commission knows that Lithuania has limited means to conduct effective monitoring. Moreover, having abandoned Lithuania, the EU is basically telling Vilnius that it is on its own if it decides to take a stand for the EU sanctions that the rest of the EU has now betrayed.
It’s a big win for Putin — a sign, he will certainly consider, that the EU’s appetite for maintaining sanctions is waning amid rising energy costs, threats, and an approaching winter. And he will view it as a sign that the EU will eventually sacrifice Ukraine and its supposedly sacred values in order to take the easy way out of this crisis.
It says much about Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and Co. that the far smaller and less wealthy Lithuania has so much more political courage. Indeed, it speaks to the rot of the vaunted European project and the galactic-sized chasm between the words leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron offer in defense of European democratic sovereignty and the actions they are willing to take in its defense.
But the Europeans should be wary. Whether it comes from a belatedly aware Biden or a future Republican president, a reckoning is coming. Reliable allies such as Britain, the Baltic states, Poland, Australia, and Japan should be optimistic. The U.S. can, should, and will have the defense of those allies willing to bear their share of the burden and stand with America on critical concerns such as those posed by China. But Germany and Italy?
If they want to become Russian subjects, that’s their prerogative. But America should no longer be willing to bear the eternal watch as their thankless Atlas guardian.
