The Kyiv Post headline says it all: “Controversial ceasefire in Donbas war zone fails within minutes.”
How Vladimir Putin must chuckle at the ease with which democratic leaders fall for his gimmicks.
In this case, it’s Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s turn to play Putin’s fool. Namely, for agreeing to a ceasefire that Russia, as its immediate breach attests, never had any interest in living up to. The ceasefire, which supposedly took force on Monday, requires a suspension of all Ukrainian military and Russian-supported rebel activity in southeastern Ukraine. A brainchild of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France, the ceasefire is pitch-perfect European Union diplomacy babble. It sounds comprehensive but is totally reliant on Putin’s less-than-abundant goodwill. The Kyiv Post notes that the deal includes “a total ban on subversive actions and reconnaissance activities, the use of aerial vehicles including drones, firearms including sniper weapons, and the deployment of heavy weapons in close proximity to civilian objects.”
Russia will breach these commitments in the probably accurate belief that it won’t be held responsible for doing so. This will be especially apparent in relation to “subversive actions,” which are the favored pedigree of the GRU and FSB intelligence officers directing rebel activities. Indeed, the Kremlin isn’t even trying to hide its amusement at this absurdity. On Monday, Putin’s chief spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told a Russian newspaper that when it comes to “any guarantees from Russia, in this case, I don’t think we can talk about this because Russia is not a party to the conflict.”
That’s a Chekist royal salute to Zelensky. The former comedian has, at least temporarily, made his presidency a big joke. What will follow can be predicted with confidence.
The Russians will offer a little reduction in their own military activity in return for Zelensky’s total reduction in Ukrainian military activity. Until Putin decides to implode the ceasefire completely, which he ultimately will, the Russian president will undermine Ukrainian areas of control and seek to deplete Ukrainian military morale with sporadic lethal attacks. Putin knows it’s quite hard to be a Ukrainian soldier when you know the enemy can kill you without you being able to respond.
To be fair to Zelensky, his silliness here is far from solitary. Consider Putin’s not-so-auspicious record with other recent Western leaders. Merkel ignores her NATO responsibilities while acting as a proxy for Putin’s energy blackmail policy. Macron now laments the sanctions imposed on Russia for its 2014 seizure of Crimea. Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has tolerated Russian assassination squads in return for Moscow’s use of London as a money-laundering center. And his otherwise robust Russia policy aside, President Trump still deludes himself that Putin wants to be America’s friend.
There is only one positive point to note. The U.S. Navy sent out surveillance flights over the Black Sea waters off of Crimea on Monday. That action is designed to send a message to Russian occupation forces that they are being watched. In turn, if and when Russia breaches the ceasefire by killing a Ukrainian soldier, the United States should call a United Nations Security Council meeting and push publicly for new sanctions on the Kremlin. At the very least, that might just embarrass the EU into at least retreating from this idiotic deal and offering new support to Ukraine.
