Responding to U.S. and European Union appeasement, Vladimir Putin is flexing his muscles. As part of his energy blackmail strategy, he is restricting natural gas supplies to Europe.
As the cold European winter approaches, energy prices are skyrocketing and rationing seems inevitable.
The resumption of global economic activity following the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked soaring energy prices. European governments, Britain included, are now desperate for increased supplies so that their citizens will be able to heat their homes. But the Russian president and his Gazprom CEO puppet Alexey Miller aren’t interested. They insist that Gazprom is meeting contractual expectations. It can’t increase supply, they say, because to do so would jeopardize energy reserves needed to supply Russians this winter.
It’s a lie.
Gazprom could ramp up production at its extraction sites in order to meet the excess demand and consolidate Russian reserves. Its own website proudly declares that “Gazprom pursues the strategy of producing gas in the volumes adjusted by demand.” Instead, Gazprom has spent the last few months repeatedly refusing to book added supply volumes into Europe. It’s an energy war waged with the very thinnest pretense of deniability.
Putin’s gambit isn’t that complicated. He’s holding back supplies so as to leverage the rapid dominance of his Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. Put simply, he is doing what I myself and nearly everyone except President Joe Biden and Chancellor Angela Merkel said he would do. Putin has no gratitude for the Biden-Merkel approval of Nord Stream 2. Now recognizing the ludicrous vulnerability these two leaders create for themselves, Putin is exploiting it.
The EU’s response to this crisis has been predictably pathetic. Rather than threaten sanctions and thus mitigate the risk of this blackmail becoming a perennial occurrence, the EU is showing it will do whatever Putin demands. Licensing requirements for Nord Stream 2 have been sped up in response to the Russian brinkmanship. Beyond that, we see the standard lamentations. Referencing Norwegian supply boosts on Tuesday, for example, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen observed, “We are very grateful that Norway is stepping up its production, but this does not seem to be the case in Russia.”
To be fair to von der Leyen, she at least has commented on this crisis. Biden, who pledged at his inauguration to “be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security,” has been radio silent.
Further rubbing salt in the wound, Putin has just cut a separate energy supply deal with his EU friend in Hungary, Viktor Orban. It will mean redirecting gas transits out of Ukraine. The problem for Ukraine, and for Western security, is that the fees associated with these transits are critical to the revenue base of Kyiv’s pro-Western government. While Ukraine’s existing contract means it remains entitled to those fees, Gazprom is likely to stop paying them regardless.
Putin is the ultimate Cold War warrior, and for him, the Cold War never ended. Failing to attune themselves to that reality, Biden and his EU colleagues are now reaping a cold winter whirlwind.
