Almost a third of the way through the regular season of college football, and I like what I’m seeing. Last week my picks went 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. We’ve got some exciting conference and nonconference matchups featuring ranked teams in week five.
Record after week four: straight up – (10-2), against the spread – (9-3)
Texas Tech (2-1) at No. 6 Oklahoma (3-0) (Noon ET on FOX)
Let’s start with the bad news for Texas Tech: Sophomore quarterback Alan Bowman is out with a shoulder injury. That leaves two unproven options under center. Armand Shyne has been a bright spot for the Red Raiders, averaging an outstanding 7.4 yards per carry. He’ll get plenty of looks out of the backfield as Texas Tech tries to settle the nerves of whichever quarterback gets the nod.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma appears well on its way to producing its third straight Heisman-winning quarterback that transferred in from another school. Jalen Hurts is completing over 80% of his passes and has thrown for 880 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception. He also leads the team in rushing yards with 373 and rushing touchdowns with four. He’s averaging an absolutely absurd 9.8 yards per carry.
The Sooners average over 320 yards per game on the ground. The Red Raiders are currently ranked 87th in the country in run defense. That’s the X-factor in this game. If Texas Tech can’t stop Oklahoma’s strength, the run game, then the Red Raiders don’t have a prayer.
Beating up on Montana State and UTEP at home is one thing. Going on the road and losing by two touchdowns to an Arizona team that lost to Hawaii shows me that this Texas Tech squad doesn’t have what it takes to stare down a legitimate national championship contender.
The spread: Oklahoma (-27.5)
My pick: Texas Tech lost their starting quarterback while Oklahoma is coming off the bye week and has been lighting teams up. I’m taking the Sooners to win and cover.
No. 18 Virginia (4-0) at No. 10 Notre Dame (2-1) (3:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins has been a revelation for the Cavaliers, leading the team in rushing in addition to throwing for 843 yards, six touchdowns, and four picks. He’s also completing passes at a 65.3% clip. His longest pass of the season is only 40 yards. It’s a strange stat because it shows that he hasn’t had much success deep down the field. Either his receivers aren’t able to break free or he’s unwilling to take big risks with the deep ball. There’s also another way to look at it: He’s simply taking what the defense is giving him.
Virginia has been a bit inconsistent this year. After a good road win in the opener against Pitt, which just upset undefeated UCF, the Cavs dominated William & Mary, and then nearly lost to Florida State and Old Dominion. They’re 4-0, but this doesn’t feel like a team that will be able to compete for four quarters with one of the nation’s best teams.
Notre Dame has been stewing after coming back and having the chance to steal a win on the road against Georgia only to fall short. Ian Book is one of the country’s best quarterbacks and he gives Notre Dame a much more dynamic offense. In three games, Book is completing nearly 62% of his passes and has thrown for 828 yards and eight touchdowns with only two picks. He has also run for two scores and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He’s only trailing the team’s rushing leader, Tony Jones Jr., by three yards.
My X-factors in this game are the battles between Notre Dame’s front seven and Virginia’s offensive line and Notre Dame’s offensive line against Virginia’s front seven. Georgia’s defensive front manhandled Notre Dame in Athens. The Fighting Irish finished with 46 rushing yards and averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. After a sluggish first half, D’Andre Swift and Georgia’s offensive line wore down Notre Dame’s front seven and helped the Dawgs retake the lead and win the game.
Notre Dame got bullied by a much more physical Georgia squad and the Fighting Irish still have USC, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Navy, and Stanford left on the schedule. One more loss will likely mean the end of their chances to make the College Football Playoffs. Those X-factors are all about physicality and whether Notre Dame can enforce its will on both sides of the ball.
The spread: Notre Dame (-12.5)
My pick: After facing one of the country’s best teams in Georgia and nearly beating them late, the Fighting Irish shouldn’t have a problem with the Cavaliers. After a disappointing loss last week, I’m taking Notre Dame to win and cover the spread.
No. 21 USC (3-1) at No. 17 Washington (3-1) (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
Outside of Cal, the Pac-12 is cannibalizing itself, ensuring that the conference almost definitely won’t send a team to the College Football Playoff this year.
The Huskies lost at home to Cal by one in a game that had atrocious weather and a subsequently long delay. The Trojans beat Stanford in a game that featured both teams’ backup quarterbacks, then lost to BYU by three in overtime, and then beat ranked Utah with their third-string quarterback after Kedon Slovis was knocked out of the game. Matt Fink threw three touchdown passes and led the Trojans to the upset win.
On the other sideline, quarterback Jacob Eason has a chance to make a statement and reassert Washington’s place as Pac-12 North front-runner with a win. His numbers are quite good. He has 1,063 passing yards while completing over 70% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and just two picks. The Huskies have not been as successful on the ground in the post-Myles Gaskin era, but they have three running backs, Salvon Ahmed, Richard Newton, and Sean McGrew, that have over 200 yards rushing and are averaging over five yards per carry.
Between its three quarterbacks, USC is completing just over 75% of its passes and is just outside the top-15 nationally in passing offense. What we’ve learned throughout the course of the season is that regardless of who’s under center for the Trojans, they’ll definitely be letting it rip. That’s why my X-factor in this game will be Washington’s secondary against Matt Fink. USC’s quarterbacks have thrown nine touchdown passes this season, but they’ve also thrown six interceptions. If the Huskies do a good job in coverage and take advantage of mistakes, that will go a long way in helping them win this game.
The spread: Washington (-10.5)
The pick: The Huskies offense has scored at least 45 points in their three wins so far this season and their only loss is to a ranked Cal squad that is turning out to better than almost everyone expected. I’ll pick Washington to win at home, but I don’t think they’ll cover the spread.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
