Summoned by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was in Sochi, Russia, on Tuesday. In a communiqué following the meeting, the two leaders agreed that Russian forces would supervise a Kurdish withdrawal from an area of northern Syria contested by Turkish forces.
But that’s just the paper headline. This is a big win for Putin.
While the ceasefire will generally be on pro-Turkish terms, it will further suck the NATO member state into Moscow’s orbit. Putin will force the Kurds to choose between annihilation and submission under a condition of relative but not total independence (the Kurdish energy economy will go to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and Russia). In these outcomes, Putin will further diminish American credibility while strengthening his economic and military hand in the Middle East.
To be clear, this will not be good for America.
While Erdoğan has spent the past few days boosting his nationalist-Islamist base by laughing at America and talking about smashing Kurdish skulls, Putin doesn’t want continuing chaos in northern Syria. Erdoğan won’t be happy about accepting a durable ceasefire, but Putin will offer an inducement: the use of the Russian military-intelligence services and Assad’s military to throttle the People’s Protection Units and other Kurdish militias into submission. If he must, Putin will target hospitals and other civilian infrastructure to pressure Kurdish civilians. Abandoned by America, Kurdish leaders will have little option but to cede or lose thousands of civilian lives.
Playing off Erdoğan’s galactic-size ego and limited intellect, Putin will also offer support for Erdoğan’s broader strategic ambitions. He’ll pledge to help Erdoğan in his escalating showdown with Greece over Cyprus. Putin might even support Erdoğan in his recently stated desire to develop a nuclear weapons program.
What does Putin get?
He gets to further sever Turkey from NATO, to win Turkey’s acquiescence to the Russian-Syrian offensive in Syria’s western Idlib province, and to show the Sunni-Arab monarchies that Russia is a more useful partner than the United States. If Putin can foster that crucial latter understanding, he’ll win OPEC alignment for higher global oil prices and increased purchases of Russian military equipment. This is the keystone to Putin’s Middle Eastern strategy.
Of course, the Kurds are the real losers here.
The degree to which the People’s Protection Units-aligned Kurds have been weakened by President Trump’s withdrawal of U.S. military forces is hard to overestimate. Evidencing as much is a Turkish media report on Tuesday on a meeting between Kurdish, Russian, Assadist, and Turkish representatives. The terms of surrender for the Kurds were absurd: an offer for suspended Turkish military operations in return for Kurdish submission to Assad, or Kurdish residency permits in Iran and Armenia. Kurdish militias would be rolled into the Syrian army.
Even assuming exaggerated reporting, it is clear that the Kurds are being played.
There is only one silver lining here. Perhaps Trump will now realize that Putin is neither a good friend nor a reasonable partner. It’s odd that Trump still hasn’t understood Putin’s nature. Had he paid any semblance of attention to his intelligence briefings and Putin’s overt global activity, Trump would realize the Russian leader is an ardent adversary.
If nothing else, Trump should look in the mirror. This isn’t an “America first” foreign policy. In this situation at least, it’s America last.
