Did you score tickets to Hamilton in two weeks? Don’t count on that happening. Did your kid just make the cut for the JV squad? Don’t count on opening day occurring when planned.
If your city hasn’t canceled the St. Patrick’s Day parade, they probably will. If you shelled out for tickets to a charity gala the Saturday after next, maybe don’t worry about getting the dress right away.
Everything in your life is going to be shut down by the coronavirus.
Your children’s school will close soon. Your employer will soon say “work from home at will,” and then upgrade to “only come in if you have to.” People you know will get laid off because their bosses don’t want folks coming to work. Maybe buses and the subway will shut down.
This Sunday may be your first day skipping church in years because your church may be shutdown.
The NBA season has already been suspended, and the NCAA tournament may be next — already, they won’t have fans. Don’t be shocked if the NHL follows suit, and Major League Baseball pushes back opening day.
Is this some crazy overreaction?
Well, one NBA player, who was jokingly manhandling microphones on Monday, has tested positive. An Episcopalian pastor in Los Angeles has tested positive after attending a conference that didn’t cancel. In D.C., an Episcopalian parish spread the virus to its members. That means other Episcopalian pastors likely have it and could spread it to their flocks.
Every major public event that happens — every NHL game, every preseason game, every parade, every conference, every protest, every Mass — has a likelihood of spreading the virus not only to attendees but then to those who subsequently come into contact with the attendees.
If would-be attendees stay closer to home, they prevent (or at least delay) the spread of the virus from the places where it’s already present to cities and towns where it’s absent. If you keep your kids home from school, they are less likely to get it and less likely to give it to someone else. If you cancel your pick-up basketball games, you decrease the odds that your neighbor with the coronavirus will give it to others.
According to models, a 25% reduction in contacts yields a 50% reduction in infections.
So schools are going to close. Day care is going to close. Flights will be canceled. You won’t be allowed to visit your mom or grandma at the nursing home. Your Friday fish fry isn’t going to happen. We may not shut down as totally as Italy has, but we’ll soon be closer to where Italy is today than to where the United States was on Monday.
Someday, hopefully in April, this will all pass, and things will be normal again. But it may not be until May or June or later. And things won’t be normal anytime soon.
Maybe the massive shutdown of daily life will prove to be an overreaction. Maybe the virus, while contagious, isn’t that harmful. But the die is cast. Everything is shutting down.
