There are 15 days to go until the Iowa caucuses. In December and November I looked at early polls from 2012 and 2008 and showed that they weren’t great at predicting who would actually win in Iowa, in New Hampshire or the nomination. Now that we’re much closer to the primaries, are the polls any better than they were a month or two months ago? Let’s find out:
2011, Republican national polls: On Dec. 19, 2011, 15 days before the 2012 Iowa caucuses, Newt Gingrich led national polling with a 4.5 point advantage over Mitt Romney. In the chaotic primary, Gingrich would lose the lead the day after Iowa and retake it later in January before losing it for good in early February. Romney did not retake the lead for good until the final day of February, just before Super Tuesday. Gingrich eventually won the South Carolina and Georgia primaries but fell well short of winning the nomination.
