The political world is eagerly anticipating the results of Tuesday’s special election in a congressional district outside Atlanta, waiting to see how a 30-year-old Democrat will perform against a slate of Republican candidates on their home turf.
Democrat Jon Ossoff is polling surprisingly well, and his party is hoping Tuesday’s results will be a referendum on President Trump’s time in office, marking an early harbinger of success in the 2018 midterm elections.
But in the case that Ossoff pulls off a victory and clears the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, or even if he manages to secure a respectably high margin of support, political observers should take any favorable outcomes with a grain of salt. Certainly, it is significant for a Democrat to perform well, or win, in a historically Republican district. But the circumstances in this election are unusual enough that we need to be cautious in our assessments that it could foretell the outcomes of other races, especially those a year and a half or three and a half years away.
As one of the only candidates running in competitive special elections right now, Ossoff has benefitted from a uniquely robust national support effort. A New Yorker profile published on Monday summarized it as such:
Ossoff can afford to blanket local television in part thanks to the millions of dollars that have poured into his campaign from individual donors all over the country. Dozens of volunteers from outside the state have also come to Georgia to spread his message. Ossoff recently landed on the cover of New York magazine, which called him “The Trump-Hate Weather Vane,” and stories have also appeared in Time and The Atlantic. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put ads on Atlanta radio featuring the actor Samuel L. Jackson, a Morehouse alum. (“We have to channel the great vengeance and furious anger we have for this Administration into votes at the ballot box,” Jackson says in the spot.) Meanwhile, the actress Alyssa Milano, currently filming a project in Atlanta, drove Ossoff supporters to vote early during her downtime. The band Imagine Dragons has given the campaign permission to use one of its songs—its drummer, Daniel Platzman, was in Ossoff’s high-school class—though it hasn’t appeared in an ad yet.
Backing like that will not be replicated for most, if any, Democrats in 2018. No matter how unpopular Trump is by 2018, Democratic candidates in competitive districts will not enjoy the immense time, attention, and money Ossoff received. Similarly, most Democrats will also not be facing a Republican field splintered among 11 candidates. (Ossoff’s opponents have also benefitted from support offered by national players, though to a much lesser extent.)
None of this is to say a successful night for Ossoff would be insignificant. But bear in mind the rare set of circumstances impacting this race as pundits prepare to parse the results.
Emily Jashinsky is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
