There’s a new poll out in Utah’s 2018 Senate race that seems sure to gather some headlines, but in the end it’s pretty worthless. Read on for a moment and you might see why.
Former independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin would beat Sen. Orrin Hatch in a head-to-head matchup for the U.S. Senate, a new poll shows….The poll by JMC Analytics found 33 percent of residents would vote for McMullin, 29 percent for Hatch and 11 percent for an unnamed Democrat if the election were held today. Another 10 percent favored someone else, and 17 percent were undecided.
Asked whether Hatch deserves to be re-elected or if it’s time for someone new, only 21 percent of Utahns chose the seven-term senator, while 68 percent want someone new, according the poll.
In the time since this poll was taken a full month ago, Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, has announced that he would be retiring, and then that he might resign abruptly. And McMullin has expressed interest in running for that seat instead.
But that’s not the problem. The problem is, why are we assuming McMullin would run for anything as an independent? Yes, he campaigned for president as an independent, but that was because he didn’t have a choice — Trump had the nomination locked up by the time he got in. Given that McMullin is actually a Republican, it would be much more interesting to see how he scores against Hatch in a primary.
Perhaps it’s the poll’s motivation that’s the problem. It was commissioned by the so-called “Centrist Project” as a form of advocacy, in hopes of luring an independent candidate to the ballot.
But in the political real world, McMullin’s path to the Senate (or the House) in Utah is a heck of a lot easier if he can snag the GOP nomination, and the new rules for primaries make it easier than it ever was before. With Hatch’s numbers what they are, and Trump’s popularity in Utah not exactly stellar, there’s every reason to think McMullin would be competitive in a primary.
A three-way race against a Democrat and Hatch would be a much more complicated and difficult contest for someone like McMullin to navigate — one in which many Republican voters might just do as they did in November and return to the fold at the last minute to prevent a Democratic victory. So, honestly, it beats me why anyone would bother with a survey like this one.
