After two undefeated teams fell last week, Pittsburgh is the last one standing. But there’s even more drama to come in Week 8. Can the Steelers beat their archrival and stay undefeated? What can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Baltimore Ravens do with new signings Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant?
Last week, my picks went 2-1 straight up and 1-2 against the spread. But overall, my picks this season are doing quite well: 14-7 straight up and 13-8 against the spread. Here are three games you can’t miss this week — and my picks to win.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1), 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Both the Steelers and Ravens are off to historic starts, and their quarterbacks are a big reason why.
Lamar Jackson is coming off an MVP season, making good decisions with the football, and is still a threat with his legs. The problem we’ve seen with Jackson is that he’s 26th among quarterbacks in completion percentage and 27th in passing yards. Those are certainly not MVP-type numbers.
He has 10 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions and is leading the team in rushing yards while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. He hasn’t beat opponents deep down the field often enough this season to keep defenses honest. Everyone is looking to stop the run, so teams are stacking the box. If Jackson can air it out long and connect with his receivers, he might be able to turn back into the nearly unstoppable force that helped him win the MVP last year.
Ben Roethlisberger has looked very good in his return from elbow surgery after he missed basically all of last season. Like Jackson, he’s not throwing it deep. In fact, the Steelers are 26th in the NFL in yards per attempt with less than seven. Big Ben has become a game manager and less of a deep threat.
The Steelers have an elite defense and an offense that is surprisingly good. Here’s why: The Steelers are outside the top 20 in passing offense per game and outside the top 10 in rushing and still manage to score over 30 points per game. That puts them at sixth in the NFL in scoring offense.
By comparison, the Ravens have the league’s top rushing offense but are 31st out of 32 teams in passing offense. Baltimore is averaging just under 30 points per game and is eighth in scoring offense. Its running game is not as effective as the one we saw last year due to the offensive line’s struggles and Jackson’s inability to spread teams out and beat them deep down the field.
The Steelers defense, as I mentioned earlier, is one of the best in the game. They’re second in defending the run and sixth in defending the pass. They’re also sixth in scoring defense and lead the league in sacks.
If the Ravens don’t want to start losing ground in the AFC North, they’ll have to quiet the Steelers’ running game and disrupt Big Ben’s timing. He has been getting the ball out of his hands quickly and letting his receivers make plays in space.
In what should be a closely contested game, third-down and red-zone conversions will be critical. The Ravens, who have the NFL’s top scoring defense, also have the sixth-best third-down defense as well as the third-worst red-zone defense in football. It’s important to note that they’ve allowed only 13 trips to the red zone all year, but they’re giving up touchdowns on just under 77% of those possessions.
Ravens kicker Justin Tucker is my X-factor. There’s no one I’d want to take a kick or a kick under pressure more than him.
The line: Baltimore Ravens (-4.0)
The pick: I think Pittsburgh’s run defense is up for the task of containing Lamar Jackson, so I’ll take the points and the Steelers to win for the second week in a row as road underdogs.
New Orleans Saints (4-2) at Chicago Bears (5-2), 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
There really isn’t a lot to be said about this game. The New Orleans Saints are crazy comeback artists while the Bears have a great defense and a horrible offense.
The Saints won last week without Emmanuel Sanders or Michael Thomas. New Orleans might get a huge boost if Thomas returns. In the meantime, Alvin Kamara has been fantastic. He’s averaging over 60 rushing yards per game and has just under five yards per carry. He’s also leading the team in targets, catches, receiving yards, and is tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns with three to go along with his four rushing touchdowns. Drew Brees doesn’t typically air it out long, but he’s still efficient and is completing nearly 73% of his passes.
The Bears, who have a top-15 rushing defense and top-10 pass defense, also have the second-best third-down defense in the NFL as well as the best red-zone defense in football. The Saints have the third-worst third-down defense as well as the league’s worst red-zone defense, allowing teams to score on a mind-numbing 86.4% of their trips inside the 20.
But it’s the offenses that distinguish these two teams the most:
– New Orleans is seventh in scoring offense. Chicago is 27th.
– New Orleans converts 55% of the time on third down. That’s the best mark in the NFL. The Bears are 30th out of 32 teams.
– The Saints are 14th in rushing yards per game. The Bears are dead last.
– The Saints are ninth in passing offense. The Bears are 25th in that category.
– The Saints are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense. The Bears are averaging 4.8 yards per play, and only two teams are averaging fewer offensive yards per play.
Making matters worse for Chicago is that star receiver Allen Robinson II is in the concussion protocol, so the Bears might not have their best player available on Sunday.
The line: New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
The pick: I’m trying not to overthink this one. The Saints are a better team and should win comfortably. I’m taking New Orleans to win and cover.
San Francisco 49ers (4-3) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1), 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Every time the San Francisco 49ers seem to build some momentum this season, they squander it. After a season-opening loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers beat the New York Jets and the New York Giants. They then dropped a close one to the Philadelphia Eagles and got crushed by the Miami Dolphins. How did they respond? With two straight wins against the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots. But just as they’re rounding into form, Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson Jr. are now going to be out for several weeks with injuries.
ESPN’s Brady Henderson tweeted a stat this week that shows that you don’t want to play Russell Wilson and the Seahawks after they lose. He tweeted, “Russell Wilson’s 31-8 record following an in-season loss is the best of any QB since the 1970 merger.”
Russell Wilson’s 31-8 record following an in-season loss is the best of any QB since the 1970 merger. OC Brian Schottenheimer said he saw the same Wilson as usual after his three interceptions in the Seahawks’ loss to Arizona. “He doesn’t blink,”… https://t.co/YwoVm5CtGG
— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) October 30, 2020
The Seahawks have also had a cascade of injuries, especially at running back and in the secondary. Henderson said that running backs Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Homer haven’t practiced this week. DeeJay Dallas is the only back on the team who has actually participated in practice! Meanwhile, Henderson also noted that defensive backs Jamal Adams, Shaquill Griffin, and Ugo Amadi haven’t practiced this week either.
We should be in for a great matchup between the Seahawks passing game and the 49ers pass defense. Seattle has the league’s second-best passing offense while San Francisco has the league’s third-best pass defense.
The Seahawks still have by far the worst pass defense in the game and are allowing nearly 369 yards per game. Will the 49ers be able to take advantage of it? They are 21st in passing offense and are gaining nearly 245 yards per game through the air.
While Seattle has a top-15 rushing offense, San Francisco’s is in the top 10. That running game helped them reach the Super Bowl last year. This year, it has helped them just claw above a .500 winning percentage.
The scoring offenses and scoring defenses are also big things that separate these two teams. No team scores more points per game than Seattle while San Francisco is ranked 16th in scoring offense. On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers have the fifth-best scoring defense while the Seahawks have the league’s 23rd-best scoring defense.
Seattle is only converting on 33.9% of its third-down plays. That’s unreal considering that they have the NFL’s top scoring offense. Seattle scores touchdowns on a whopping 85.7% of its trips inside the 20. The 49ers are eighth in red-zone offense and can’t be discounted either. They also have a top-10 third-down defense and the third-best red-zone defense. San Francisco will need both in equal measure to keep Seattle in check.
The Seahawks have been scraping by because of Wilson’s elite play, but that ended last week against the Cardinals. While he racked up 388 passing yards along with 84 rushing yards and had three touchdown passes, he also threw three interceptions, including the one that lost them the game. Wilson needs to take care of the ball this week.
While Jimmy Garoppolo continues his steady play, the big name to watch on the 49ers offense is still tight end George Kittle. He’s a matchup nightmare and will undoubtedly have an impact on this game.
If you throw out their opener against the Falcons, the Seahawks’ games have been decided by 5, 7, 8, 1, and 3 points. This game should be a good one and a close one.
The line: Seattle Seahawks (-3.0)
The pick: I expect Wilson to bounce back and lead the depleted Seahawks over the 49ers. I’m taking Seattle to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
