The polls have closed in Michigan and Mississippi. Clinton won Mississippi in a landslide and Sanders won Michigan in a historic upset. Here are a few brief thoughts:
Clinton Nostalgia Fails in Michigan
The Clintons went undefeated in Michigan for 24 years. It started on March 17, 1992 when Bill Clinton won the Michigan primary by 25 points. In the general election, Clinton turned Michigan blue for the first time since 1968 and the state hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential election since.
Prior to Tuesday, polling averages said Clinton would win by more than 20 points. That, combined with 24 years of history, made it seem impossible for Sanders to win. But when the polls closed, the race wasn’t immediately called for Clinton. In the end, Sanders pulled off the biggest upset in primary polling history. At FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver points out that the previous record was set in 1984, when Gary Hart overcame a 17 point polling deficit in New Hampshire to beat Walter Mondale. And you’d expect polling would be better today, 32 years down the road.
Delegate Count
Clinton will finish the night with more than half of the delegates required to clinch. Sanders trails, with fewer than half of her delegates. Clinton has roughly 70 percent of all delegates distributed so far. When you exclude superdelegates, Clinton still holds a lead, although it’s narrower: roughly 60 percent.
Still, Clinton has a long race ahead of her. Even if she won every delegate in the rest of the races (which is unlikely), she wouldn’t clinch the nomination until April 19, when her home state of New York votes. Clinton continues her rout in the nationwide popular vote, though. She has more than six of every 10 votes cast in all of the Democratic primaries combined.
What’s Ahead
On March 15, 691 delegates will be up for grabs, or 29 percent of the delegates required to clinch the Democratic nomination. So far, the numbers look good for Clinton. She averages nearly a 30 point lead in Florida, 20 points in Ohio, 40 points in Illinois and 14 points in North Carolina (Missouri hasn’t been polled recently). Assuming Clinton holds those leads in Florida and North Carolina, she’ll have completed her sweep of the South.
There is some good news for Sanders. Unlike the Republican side, none of the March 15 contests are winner-take-all contests. As long as Sanders earns 15 percent of the vote in each state, he’ll keep Clinton from sweeping the delegates. It shouldn’t be difficult to earn 15 percent of the vote in each congressional district, which would help Sanders even more.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
