During Olympic season, people tune in to see how their nation stacks up against the rest of the world in competition. In 2012 and 2016, the United States was dominant, winning the overall medal count against second-place China. But in 2020, China has come on strong and is now outperforming FiveThirtyEight’s projections of how many medals the country would secure.
Winning on the balance beam is not the same as winning in the global balance of power. But in the last five years, two key things have reshaped American foreign policy and public opinion toward the idea that we are once again in an era of great-power competition: the Trump administration and COVID-19. The national security strategy outlined by the Trump administration clearly identified the rising influence of China as a threat to the U.S. deserving of primary focus, and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic raised the alarm for voters more broadly about China’s role in the world.
While there is still not a consensus among U.S. voters that China is the primary threat America faces, concerns about the rising influence of China have grown dramatically in the last year and a half. And it is Republicans, more concerned about China than Democrats in recent years, who are leading the way on this trend.
Unfavorable views of China have been steadily rising in the U.S. since the start of former President Barack Obama’s second term in office. Previously, unfavorable views had not at all been the majority position, but today, three-quarters of Americans view China unfavorably. Asked a different way, if people feel “warm” or “cool” toward China, a majority (57%) of Republicans in 2018 said they felt “cool” toward China, while only 38% of Democrats felt the same. Today, both Republicans and Democrats feel cooler toward China, as do two-thirds of Americans overall.
Worries about China are not just confined to the GOP or to the U.S. In the mid-2000s, most advanced economies had a neutral to slightly favorable view of China. A majority of those in Australia, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Spain, the Netherlands, and more said they felt positively about China. But by last summer, those numbers had changed dramatically, with China’s favorability crashing down below 25% in most of those countries. People across many advanced economies are increasingly likely to say China does not respect its people’s personal freedoms.
Furthermore, people in Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea are now much more likely than just a few years ago to say their country should not prioritize economic ties with China over the U.S. In Australia, China’s attempts to pressure Australia to stop criticizing them were met with resistance, leading to a Chinese boycott of Australian goods and a massive drop in Australian interest in prioritizing China.
However, while Democrats and the rest of the world seem to be coming around to the China-skeptic view held by the GOP, there is still no clear consensus around what, if anything, should be done about it.
Even if both Republicans and Democrats are leaning more unfavorably toward China, only 18% of Democrats believe China is our nation’s top security threat, compared to 56% of Republicans. GOP voters are laser-focused on China as a threat, while Democrats are more divided and are more alarmed about Russia. Nearly twice as many Republicans as Democrats say that “limiting the power and influence of China” should be a top priority for the U.S.
Furthermore, while there is broad consensus that China’s growing military power is a problem for the U.S., something 8 in 10 Americans believe, there is less worry about China’s economic might. In 2019, half of Democrats and Republicans viewed China’s growing economic power as a good thing for the U.S. as well, complicating things for foreign policy leaders who believe economic decoupling from China is essential.
With China’s development of a robust modern nuclear weapons program, its dramatically increased economic influence in the Middle East and Africa, and its growing role in international institutions, China’s power will continue to be a major issue in our nation’s politics and policy for years to come.
Even for voters who might not follow foreign policy closely, the downstream effects can be felt in everything from our supply chain of semiconductors that are needed for new cars to what messages our celebrities and movies can deliver.
In 2022, all eyes will again be on China as the country hosts the Beijing Winter Olympics. While in 2008, Americans were split over whether it was wise to host the games in Beijing, views of China have soured greatly in the intervening years. The world has changed greatly. But for policymakers, even with rising unfavorability toward China here and around the globe, the case must still be made to voters that China’s ascendance should be a source of concern and a driver of action.
