At a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union in St. Petersburg, Russia, last week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko publicly lambasted Russian President Vladimir Putin for his gas export prices. As with much of Europe, Belarus is dependent on Russian energy supplies. There’s an opportunity here for the U.S.
The Lukashenko-Putin exchange was quite remarkable. It takes a healthy dose of courage (see Chris Wallace) to aggressively challenge Putin to his face and on his home turf. But Lukashenko wasn’t hesitant. He railed against what he said was the excessive price that Russia charges Belarus in comparison to Germany. When Putin tried to shut him down, Lukashenko pushed back hard.
“Germany pays $200 while Belarus pays $130 because Germany is 3,000 kilometers further away than Belarus. That’s why their price is higher! That’s the reason!” Recognizing his vulnerability, Putin then tried to move the meeting to a private forum. This clip from a Western-focused Russian propaganda outlet, Russia Insight, shows the exchange.
Now, Lukashenko’s math isn’t very good here: Germany is actually just more than 1,000 kilometers from Russia. Still, his point is somewhat well-made. Russia extorts its neighbors because Putin’s government revenue depends on maximizing foreign capital inflows. And that means energy exports. But this exchange does show how Putin’s policies come at the expense of alliances. While, later in the video above, we see Lukashenko saying he apologized to Putin, the tensions are real. As I say, they represent an American opportunity.
With growing U.S. liquefied natural gas exports, America would be able to provide a long-term better deal for Russian neighbors than Russia now provides. We might not want to support Lukashenko’s regime: He is a corrupt dictator, but other states such as Poland and the Baltics have much to gain from the U.S. here. They know it and are investing in infrastructure to facilitate this import market. In addition, the Trump administration is actively boosting U.S. liquefied natural gas export potential, and as Energy Secretary Rick Perry noted recently, intends to do more. There’s one complication.
Namely, that to effectively weaken Russia’s energy domination strategy, the U.S. needs European support. While we have good allies in the form of Poland and the Baltics, Germany remains problematic on this issue. Her newly named successor seems to see things differently, but Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to support Russia’s landmark Nord Stream II pipeline. Trump should work hard to change Merkel’s mind: Ending that pipeline would remove the centerpiece of Putin’s long-term foreign policy strategy.
I have one final takeaway from this exchange. Why would a Russian propaganda outlet would publish video, as above, that is feasibly negative for Putin?
It shows how the Russians love displays of strength. Russian mentality is shaped by the combination of their great losses in World War II and the wounding of their national pride in losing the Cold War. In turn, this exchange reminds us that to be weak in face of Putin is to invite only his challenge and disrespect. We can only deal with Russia from a position of respect and practiced strength in defense of our interests. Hence why John Bolton is such an effective interlocutor for President Trump.
