Launching a relatively high-yield rocket deep into Israel on Monday, Hamas wounded seven civilians and destroyed a family home.
The attack represents a significant escalation by the Palestinian terrorist group. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized a few dozen airstrikes across the Gaza strip in retaliation, and he has cut short his visit to Washington. The question now is whether the rocket attack will precipitate a multi-day Israeli offensive.
I suspect Netanyahu will let Hamas’ next actions determine the answer. After all, if Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad refrain from counter-retaliation, Netanyahu will have good reason to suspend Israeli military action. Facing a tight election next month, the cautious Netanyahu wants to avoid an unpredictable conflict that risks Israeli lives and voter anger.
Hamas, however, sees things differently. Hamas leaders are in an increasingly difficult domestic position that motivates them to lash out. Having utterly mismanaged Gaza’s economy and redirected humanitarian aid to serve its own ends, Hamas faces escalating challenge from those it governs. Corrupt, inefficient, and without obvious means of alleviating Gaza’s extreme job shortage, Hamas needs to alter the status quo. That explains these rocket strikes. They indicate Hamas’ effort to distract from its own failings and instead divert Palestinian anger toward Israel. They also represent Hamas’ need to extort more financial support as a price tag for their return to a relative peace.
But seeing as how Netanyahu cannot accept those terms, I’d expect escalating violence in the days ahead.
